It is a leap year.
Hopefully some brave leaders will propose love to others and generate some peace!
Good news!
- Life expectancy has more than doubled since 1900
- the world has become far more peaceful. In 2022, 3,5 in 100,000 people died in war, in the 20th Century, there was an average of 30 deaths per 100,000.
- the annual global burned area has been declining for decades with 2022 being the lowest on record.
- Deaths from famine and floods have declined almost 50 fold over the last century.
- Less than 10 percent of the world lived in extreme poverty, compared to 80% in 1820.
Media coverage of conflict and other horrible incidents like crimes and natural disasters crowd out the good news that objective data shows.
Conflict
Our world is threatened by the increasing interaction of the Russia, China and Iran Axis (a term recalling the World War 2 Germany, Italy and Japan alliance).
Warfare so far has been less direct, being fought by local forces, backed and supplied by sponsor world powers.
Radical threats to global trade by Iranian backed Houthis in Yemen are likely to be the catalyst for a wider war.
Israel seems to be itching to take on Iran which is also supplying Hizbollah and Hamas.
My 2023 forecast commented on the impact of Covid in China. Only estimates are available as China stats are patently false. Apparently 1.87 million excess deaths, mostly aged people occurred after the lifting of Covid restriction in December 2022. How can we know the pain and anger of that muzzled population?
Certainly the Chinese economy is not doing well. One can only see increasing authoritarian and totalitarian conduct from the Xi regime I still say a Taiwan conflict is imminent.
Even more so, now the Western power bloc is distracted by the widening of the Gaza conflict. Just to add some further spice, that rabid dog in starving North Korea is throwing artillery shells around again and making threats.
The waning of Woke
There are increasing signs that the Western world is waking up to the widespread damage and threats to its civilisation by the Woke ideology. This resistance has been powerfully articulated in the Alliance for Responsible Citizenship Conference in London in October.
The loud rejection of Woke style virtue signalling and identity political appeasement tactics was graphically demonstrated in the Australia Voice referendum.
Politics
In Europe, there has been a strong political swing to the right, caused by the increasingly uncontrolled refugee invasions from Africa and the Middle East. It will be interesting to see if Labour gets elected in the UK.
In the US, there is strong support for Trump, probably a world leader in anti Woke policy, despite repugnance for his personality and behaviour. He will be elected if the indictments against him fail to stick. He will likely stamp down on illegal immigrants.
the US political system is more dysfunctional than any other advanced industrial democracy. In 2024, the problem will get much worse. The presidential election will deepen the country’s political division, testing American democracy to a degree the nation hasn’t experienced in 150 years and undermining US credibility internationally…. the only certainty is damage to America’s social fabric, political institutions, and international standing
GZERO Daily . Ian Bremmer
In Southern Africa, blatant government bullying extinguished any chance of democratic change in Zimbabwe. The South African political landscape is disintegrating as fast as the national infrastructure with power, water and sewerage systems continuing to fail. The ports and rail systems are barely functional. Xenophobia is rife as unemployment soars.
Generally speaking democracy is not doing well and the need for strong, capable leaders has never been more urgent.
Other stuff
Artificial Intelligence is apparently producing productivity miracles, all likely to be at the expense of human roles, so ethical dilemmas abound.
My local forecasts are:
- Australia will continue its cricket supremacy and rugby inferiority.
- Labor may well lose the next election.
- The AUKUS submarine purchase is a non-starter: delivery decades away while the world is spinning faster don’t add up.
- The greening of energy generation will slow down
The Western order is still mighty but the white ant-ing of woke ideologies has harmed it immensely. The cross border migrations from vastly different cultures which have not assimilated poses major existential issues for Europe and the US.
Less than 80 years since the last world war, another on two or three fronts is trembling on the brink.
Nothing like a world war to re-set values, priorities and expectations!
sillysocksonfriday 