Category: the future ain’t what it used to be

Ah feck it!

The Irish came out of me just as temptation tapped me on the shoulder.

It is that easy to throw up months of discipline to succumb to the very thing one has been resisting. A momentary madness leads to the discarding of repetitive denial and virtuous reward. I resisted that one but no doubt the devil will tap me on the shoulder again.

I am glad it was just a pork sausage and not rum or cocaine!

Many people believe that right and wrong are fixed absolutes – they are incorrect. Culture dictates norms and ethics and thus morals.

So yesterdays virtues could become today’s sins and vice versa, of course.

Laws become obsolete and new ones replace them. Homosexuality was a crime and a sin, now it is opportunity for accelerated advancement in some parts of the world. It is still a death sentence in others.

Ritual genital mutilation is still practised in Africa, but attracts imprisonment elsewhere. Child marriage is still prevalent in some parts of the world but sex with young women could be about plunge us into WW3!

Michael Jackson is still revered by millions.

We cannot take the Bible literally, because yesterday’s messages may not be appropriate (ooh! So woke!)

We cannot mimic the conduct of most of our leaders, even ministers are corrupted by their assumed power over congregants.

So what do we teach our children?

Do unto others as you would have them do unto you is a good one.

Look after the environment.

It’s not as good as it looks… think before you leap

What do you think? …if you do think about this sort of stuff?

Affluent oblivion

“There is little to separate us from oblivious affluence and the day we have to rely on ourselves and the community around us. 

A war, an economic or ecological disaster and the entire network of laws and rules which turns us all too quickly into passive social clients suddenly no longer there”.

Jo Nesbo – The Redbreast, 2000

It struck me that we may be there in the next few days.

Trying to make sense of what is going on is futile. Watching Prime Ministers, Presidents, Generals, Admirals and common soldiers dance to the whims of a madman is stretching belief.

It has happened before – one only has to think about the appeasement of Kim Jong Un, Robert Mugabe, Idi Amin, Adolf Hitler and Benito Mussolini to name a few.

Not too far away is the possibility of deployment of nuclear weapons to complete the eradication of the Iranian zealots.

Let us hope that Israel keeps some sort of control on its desire to neutralise the Iranian threat.

It is like the western world is spinning off its axis. Certainly the world as we knew it.

Last week I suggested that you plant potatoes instead of dahlias, this week I am deadly serious.

  • Don’t go anywhere – you may not be able to come back for a long time.
  • Make sure you have enough staples in your pantry.
  • I don’t know what to suggest about your investments but I would consider conservative deployment.

Fuel rationing, food rationing, restricted movement, work from home (if there is work to do …) – economic disaster, social mayhem, popular immiseration.

Watch the political pendulum switch to the right from nanny state to bully state!

Nobody in Congress took a knee for Alex Pretti

Nobody will be able to do anything until the lemmings stop following the directions of a madman.

This could very well lead us back to the caves – we don’t need a nuclear holocaust, just destruction of a major fuel supply chain.

How long can an economy last without enough fuel?

What will people do?

My advice is to get a solar battery, plant potatoes and spinach and get a Kindle and do not argue with anyone in uniform!!

The Trump card

Of course it’s the Joker – but you better laugh or at least smile or it will be the Queen of Hearts: Off with his head!!

There is this surreal feeling that 2026 has plunged us all into a rabbit hole …

One can just see the Cheshire Cat grinning through all the unimagined twists and turns…

The Maduro kidnapping was such a smart operation which suggests significant planning – this is not a madcap spur of the moment whimsy.

Behind the blather there is a whole lot of strategic planning and intent. Maybe the Don’s job is to distract and misdirect? He’s pretty good at that!

We have become too civilised, too reticent, too socially delicate. The best is not equal, it will not be seen as fair by all. It is also fast and centralised and powerful.

Our lives have become clogged by the cholesterol of good living. Bureaucracy has slowed decision making and impoverished us.

We in the Western democratic world have become too soft, forgetting the hard road it took to get to where we are.

Confession time.

I must admit to an awkward admiration for a benevolent despot, a doer who has no hesitation.

It trashes all political norms and conventions of ‘civilised’ behaviour – but it is past time for a major re-set of our perspective of the real world!

Trumping maybe the way to go to save our way of life.

It may not follow conventions and has little finesse but it’s pointing in the right direction.

Heart surgery is not a delicate science: it is basic and brutal and the squeamish may not like it. Sometimes it is necessary.

It looks more and more like a world war may be on the cards. What happens to war survivors is they re-focus on looking after their own communities. Maybe that is what we need to save us..?

Sounds a bit like what I have heard about Fuentes…

What doesn’t kill you makes you stronger? Maybe…

He sticks in my throat, but may be the saviour of ‘our’ civilisation, i.e. the western democratic world.

Topsy turvy world

The words lebensraum and Anschluss probably have little significance for today’s world. They were clearly announced in Hitler’s book Mein Kampff.

In the 1930’s the militarisation of the Rhineland occupation of the Ruhr, occupation of Sudetenland, Bohemia and Moravia, annexation of Austria and invasion of Poland were justified by the desire to unite German speaking people, a need for resources, a desire to expand or gain back former land, and extreme nationalism.

They were unilateral incursions by superior military forces driven by ruthless politicians

90 years later, with MAGA we have seen:

  • the unilateral renaming of the Gulf of Mexico
  • Kristalnacht scenes of the apprehension, removal and incarceration of people within US cities by jackbooted troops;
  • the bombing of Iran
  • the obliteration of boats in international waters
  • the kidnapping of a Head of State and his wife and
  • the capture of an oil tanker under a Russian flag.
  • Threats of further action against Iran, Cuba, Colombia and Greenland have been made with impunity.

In fact, these acts have been owned with pride and self righteousness.

The two images that loom in my head are a schoolyard bully and Adolph Hitler.

These actions by the supposed leader of Western civilisation can only be seen as ‘legitimising‘ Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and lending justification to China’s invasion of Taiwan.

Guess who doesn’t give a toss?

Congress won’t check him; a few judges may rule his actions illegal in the dim and distant future…ho, hum!

Again Caligula comes to mind … initially welcomed, he reversed treason trials and brought back exiles but descended into despotism, executing rivals, squandering funds, and demanding worship, leading to his assassination by his own guards.

What next? Domestic acclaim and a stunned silence from allies and neighbours (cowed by threats of invasion?) could lead to increasingly brazen and rash acts.

Greenland to be the new 51st state, Canada to be the 52nd ….. why not Mexico as the 54th? Heyy!! Why not all of the Americas…??

Oh yeah, the other one who comes to mind is Kim Jong Un, and Vladimir of course

End Times

I have been entertaining some deep thoughts prompted by others and Trumpmania.

Now maybe irrelevant speculation….. !? It seems Israel has released the brakes and stomped on the accelerator…!

The lessons of world history are clear…

When the equilibrium between ruling elites and the majority tips too far in favour of elites, political instability is all but inevitable.

As income inequality surges and prosperity flows disproportionately into the hands of the elites, the common people suffer, and society-wide efforts to become an elite grow ever more frenzied… once a society steps on the road to crisis, it resembles a massive ball rolling down a narrow valley with steep slopes.

It’s very difficult to stop or even deflect its rush to an impending disaster.

But once the ball arrives at the crisis point, the valley opens up—there are many ways to exit the crisis.

Some paths lead to a complete disaster and utter collapse. Other trajectories manage to avoid the bloodshed of a revolution or a civil war.

Broadly-based well-being is a key variable in the structural-demographic theory, while its opposite, popular immiseration, is one of the most important drivers for instability

He [Turchin] calls this process the wealth pump; it’s a world of the damned and the saved.

And since the number of such positions remains relatively fixed, the overproduction of elites inevitably leads to frustrated elite aspirants, who harness popular resentment to turn against the established order.

Turchin’s models show that when this state has been reached, societies become locked in a death spiral it’s very hard to exit.

Peter Turchin End Times – Cliodynamica

The Iron Law of Oligarchy. In short, power corrupts.

Behavioural Sink is a term coined to describe the behaviour of rats living in an experimental utopia with ample food and no threats

They clustered together in one area and their behaviour deteriorated.

Sort of like the impact of urbanisation on humans…

I also watched a brief video on Fascism and the scenes from LA prompted thoughts of Kristalnacht in 1938 Germany.

Deliberate overuse of power to stoke up resistance from a target population. There is a Fuhrer and sycophantic toadies and brutal bullying and suppression of opposition.

 Deaths of Despair*

Life expectancy in the United States has recently fallen for three years in a row—a reversal not seen since 1918 or in any other wealthy nation in modern times. In the past two decades, deaths of despair from suicide, drug overdose, and alcoholism have risen dramatically, and now claim hundreds of thousands of American lives each year—and they’re still rising.

In [their] critically important book, Case and Deaton tie the crisis to the weakening position of labour, the growing power of corporations, and, above all, to a rapacious health-care sector that redistributes working-class wages into the pockets of the wealthy. Capitalism, which over two centuries lifted countless people out of poverty, is now destroying the lives of blue-collar America.

… for those who used to prosper in America, capitalism is no longer delivering.

*https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691190785/deaths-of-despair-and-the-future-of-capitalism

A brush with death…

Quite recently I was told that there was a snake in my vicinity which could strike at any time! If it did I should call an ambulance immediately. Also, it would be better if I didn’t move around in case it struck!

I suggested not finishing mowing the lawn. However, that was ruled out at home. “If you are going to die, you are going to die – it’s the same for all of us.”

Well, that was the best advice. No panic, no worrying … almost a secret pleasure. The prospect of imminent death was not at all daunting. Maybe a bit of regret that I wouldn’t be at my wake. I did suggest it as a possibility. Maybe I could be borrowed from the undertakers and propped up in the corner with a beer in my hands…?

That’s not exactly what really happened…

My doctor had cut off a mole and sent it off for checking. She also sent me to a cardiologist to check my ticker. He sent me for some tests.

As arranged, my doctor phoned to report if the mole was dubious or not. It was not.

But, she had the results of my CT test…

  • I was to take 300 aspirin immediately and one every day forever.
  • I was not to do anything strenuous and if I had any discomfort, no matter what, I was to call an ambulance!
  • She was booking me into hospital for angioplasty.

That’s when I asked about the lawn and the washing up.

The snake was a clogged coronary artery, which seemed to be a serious situation.

However, I saw my cardiologist a few days later and he said:

Nah, relax –it’s not a problem, we will treat it medically. It has been there a long time. If it hasn’t killed you by now, it is not likely to do so.

He is a very good doctor – he just prescribed a few pills and didn’t even put me on a diet!

So my plans for a wake are on ice.

Quite an impressive tale to tell and some of my children seemed concerned, which was heart warming.

On a slightly less jocular note, I was surprised. I was not remotely concerned by my doctor’s alarm and urgent arrangements for heart surgery.

On second thoughts, is it depressing that the thought of my death doesn’t alarm me? … I wonder if there is Beck’s in heaven? If the beer is warm, I have probably gone to hell…

Empty head

… not a good way to start a new year.

But it’s Friday and my son commented on the absence of blog blather recently. It is of some solace that somebody noticed.

The real reason for the absence of new air hot year predictions is that I am a doomsayer that didn’t get it quite right.

  • Peace has not yet blessed the Middle East nor Ukraine, but it looks to be soon.
  • I did Trumpet the the new US Pres, but not the extraordinary global impact thereof
  • Covid has seen a major slowing of China’s economy
  • The swing to the right in western democracies is gathering momentum: goodbye Trudeau, good riddance
    • Who else will go? Macron? Scholtz? Starmer? Albanese? (please!)
      • The Muskimpact on technology and economics has been phenomenal; his forays in communications are redefining political dimensions and the expression of the peoples’ wishes. (Wait! Isn’t that democracy?)
      • Jordan Peterson seems to be doing Robbie Williams’ Better Man type of change
      • The influence of influencers defies imagination and logic.
      • The Wallabies could win the Lions Tests, but don’t bet too much on it.

Ends and Odds

My view is that Harris was a token woke candidate, all flash and no substance. The facts that she was female and slightly dark in colour did not make up for her lack of real substance. The predominance and preference of dark hued wonders in her campaign was shallow and forced. I am relieved she didn’t get in.

A bit nervous about Trump but he is at least highly intelligent, if a bit unstable.

This election comes at a time when people all over the world are unhappy with where their countries are going, and they don’t trust their political institutions to right the ship. Some of that is a product of the deepening geopolitical recession, which is in part driven by a backlash against globalization and the globalist elites who promoted their own economic and political interests at the expense of their populations. Some of it has to do with the economic and social disruption caused by post-pandemic surges in inflation and immigration.

Ian Bremmer, Gzero 7 Nov

  • Watermelon seeds are high in protein and antioxidants, and the company says they provide a creamy texture similar to traditional dairy while avoiding allergens like nuts or soy.
  • Milk alternatives alone make up 36% of all plant-based sales in the US, and almond still reigns supreme
  • Meat consumption will continue to be mired in identity politics and meat reduction as a climate crisis mitigation solution will continue to be ignored by regulators and policymakers;

A common narrative is that the gender imbalance across professions is a sign that it is not an egalitarian society.

The more egalitarian a society is, the greater the gender gap in STEM enrollment. This suggests that men and women have different preferences when it comes to choosing a profession  

Sweden is an extremely egalitarian society and many professions are extremely gender dominated Construction and mining: 91% men Preschool: 94% women

… One day, Tesla owners may be able to send their vehicles off to offer rides on their own, driving others around to increase each individual vehicle’s utility by five to 10 times.

The robotaxi would also be charged wirelessly, through inductive charging

Quantumrun – The Futures No 78

Get down, Woman

That is the title of a song written by John Fogerty and first performed by Creedence Clearwater Revival in 1968 (see below for lyrics). I do not remember hearing it before today, but it expressed something that has been gnawing at my gut for some time.

The words are not an instruction, but a plea, which is right for the times. The demands and displays by Western women seeking equality with men and the end to the exploitation and subjugation of women by men have grown and spread like a fever.

I support those objectives. However, I believe that the male and female psyche evolved in our lizard brains and are ingrained in our culture and beliefs. The physically stronger male is driven to dominate and impress with his superior skills and strength; the physically weaker but more astute female seeks out and enthralls the strong male who is likely to be a good provider and protector. 

The growing economic independence of women in society since the industrial revolution has gathered impetus and has increasingly challenged and diminished men’s unrestricted dominance in the Western, Christian world.

The unrelenting criticism of male behaviour in modern times is increasingly shrill and condemnatory; its sheer volume pronouncing guilt without need for process.

The solidarity expressed in the #metoo campaign is phenomenal, but dangerous, because the allegations are historic and invariably tarnished by the time lapse between incident and outrage.

The offences are deemed to be so gross and prevalent that all humanity is required to unhesitatingly condemn any and all allegations!

Children are likely to be infused with suspicions and fears that their fathers and all men are beasts, out to subjugate and molest them because they are weaker.

Males are shrinking away and not engaging in this emotionally charged debate nor seeking a way forward. History is against them, crime has been re-defined retrospectively and they have been judged and found wanting (no pun intended)…

Males will be less likely in future to abuse their superiority. The yin will repel the yang.

However, the offer of an apple will be less successful. A lot more affirmative action will be required to compel employment equity. Like all artificial remedies, its success is likely to be limited. The male propensity for sulking and resentment is profound: the chasm between the sexes will widen with less willing help from the incumbent, dominant male majority.

Resentment will fester, western society may sunder.

Cultures, where women remain subjugated, will flourish and dominate societies riven by sanctimonious crusades and repressed resentment; torn by the yin and neutered yang of democratic politics.

So thos is a re-post. I believe it is still relevant.

Get Down Woman by Creedence Clearwater Revival

Well, get down woman, before I have to go.
Well, get down woman, before I have to go.
You know, ya hurt me with your bad mouth,
An’ I just don’t wanna know.

Well, slow down, baby, and gimme a little time.
Well, slow down, baby, and gimme a little time.
If you want me hangin’ ’round,
Gotta give me some peace of mind.

Oh, get down boy.

Well, get back, woman, before you bring it down.
Well, now, get back, baby, before you bring it down.
Or you can tell it to the wall,
Without me hangin’ around.

Originally posted on 16 March 2018 – it was somehow removed from the list.

I’m an old country boy

An old friend came to town from up North and said let’s catch up somewhere.

We decided on a 10 a.m. brunch in a cafe near the central station and his flat. I am somewhat of a hermit and get lost easily, so hate going into the city.

I have never worked or lived in a city except Salisbury in the 1970’s, which was really a large town with mild traffic in those days. Then 10 years ago in Australia, I commuted by train to an inner suburb from an outer suburb for 2 months – I still shudder…

Timetables were checked and the way to the cafe (just 7 minutes walk) and I had my phone… so girded my loins.

Only had to wait 12 minutes for the train (better early than never..). There was a seat near the door, pity about the school trip into the city. Young people can chatter!

Got to Central station without mishap. Found an exit, hobbled down stairs … left or right? Go right … oops! should be heading to Ann Street, which is the other way. More stairs… Just as well I had allowed an extra 10 minutes to find my way.

There are a lot of people in a city; why are they all on the same pavement as me?All looking purposeful and calm, politely sidestepping my hesitant shambling amble.

Ann Street, go right to Edward Street – easy peasy, only 100m to go, cross to the left, down the hill. Hmmm! better check my phone map. It says destination 9 minutes away – I’d thought it was 7 from the station..? Carry on and find a landmark to check if you are going the right way.

Can’t read street names on map; Yikes! it now says 11 minutes from destination!

So back up the hill I trudge, past Ann Street. Now 5 minutes late and at a wiggly crossroads where my phone map says cross left then right then do a wiggle and you are there. Confused I gaze about seeking clues…

Ting! A message no doubt asking where am I. My friend knows me well. It says: “Do u know where you going? There is no signage but in the snazzy building at the bottom of Jacob’s Ladder behind the revolving door!“

I look up and there across the road is a revolving door. I felt a bit like Alice in Wonderland searching for the White Rabbit. I found him behind the revolving door.

We had a good old friend reunion, which was reasuring. I almost envied his cool equilibrium about visiting the city, but remembered he had worked in Durban City for many years.

Finding my way back was easy, I even found a shortcut by reading the signs. Waited only 7 minutes for a train and had remembered to go to the loo, so there was no stress.

I am so glad I am a country boy, so glad that I will not be around in 50 years when it will be like a city everywhere, unless you travel miles inland … for a while.