Contrary to popular belief, the world is not falling apart
It’s easy to think that the world is falling apart. Media driven fear demoralises us – particularly when young – and engenders terrible political decisions
The necessary media spotlight on conflicts like Ukraine and Gaza gives the impression of unprecedented levels of violence – it’s not, it’s unprecedented media coverage of conflict and other horrible incidents like crimes and natural disasters. So much so that media channels seem to promote such scenes to maintain followings.
But wait, take a look at the data:
Last year, 3,5 in 100,000 people died in war, in the 20th Century, there was an average of 30 deaths per 100,000. The world has become far more peaceful.
The data speaks to the constant barrage of contextless catastrophe and doom. Negativity sells, but it informs badly.
The same pattern characterises the climate change reporting. A pervasive and apocalyptic narrative draws together every negative event, ignoring the data. Fires, for example: the annual global burned area has been declining for decades with last year being the lowest on record.
Deaths from famine and floods have declined almost 50 fold over the last century.
The world has improved dramatically:
Life expectancy has more than doubled since 1900;
the almost universal illiteracy of 200 years ago has almost disappeared;
in 1820, 80% of the world lived in extreme poverty, now it’s less than 10 percent;.
This incontrovertible progress has been driven by ethical and responsible conduct, trust, well functioning markets, the rule of law, innovation and political stability.
We need to foster a climate that challenges fear-mongering and promotes optimistic yet critical thinking and constructive discussion regarding the future.
The authors have convened the Alliance for Responsible Citizenship and their conference commences on 30 October in London. Follow the outcomes.
This is paraphrased from an article by
Jordan Peterson John Anderson The Weekend Australian 28 October 2023
This is the kind of talk you need to listen to. No doubt there will be muted and hypercritical media reporting on this movement – their methods, ethics and calling are under scrutiny, at last!
Generally speaking people feel uncomfortable objecting to something somebody says or saying “no”.
The desire for social acceptance and fear of causing disappointment or conflict lead us to agree, even when it’s against our best interests. Some of us were brought up with expectations of obedience. Saying “no” to a parent was exceptionally hard; an older sibling would likely give you a thick ear!
So we learned how to express our refusal: often by persistence, pleading, begging and tears. These tactics sometimes worked with Mum. Dad’s response was invariably: “what does your mother say?”
By saying No, I am challenging your power, intimating you are wrong and I am right, disappointing and inconveniencing you, embarrassing you.
The reluctance, discomfort and often fear of saying no is the playground of bullies. Standing up to our teacher, boss or parish priest is almost as difficult. But if successful, a “no” reaps rewards and enhanced respect.
The most challenging “No” of all, is the one you say after having said “Yes” many times before… when there is an expectation of “yes”
Hurt feelings, guilt, shame, embarrassment, sadness, anger and rage are common reactions to a refusal. Here in Australia, the rejection of the Voice referendum has seen all those emotions and more.
Saying no means we need to be able to discriminate – to be to tell the difference between different options and select the right one. We should also learn how to signal our position before being asked, if possible.
For some time I have been uncomfortable with the increasingly commonplace Aboriginal “welcome to country” ritual foisted on audiences; particularly the increased emphasis on this land being “ours”.
I believe it is commonplace before meetings in government departments and even in some churches.
These “welcomes” are not endearing Aboriginal cultural practices; they are in fact political statements which challenge the status quo in Australia.
High Court v Commonwealth 1993: … there is no justification for “the notion that sovereignty adverse to the Crown resides in the Aboriginal people of Australia”
The referendum message does not seem to have got through to the vociferous minority. The special treatment of people on the grounds of their ethnicity has been rejected.
Thirty percent of Australians today were not born here, they have different cultures – they are rightly expected to assimilate and contribute to our society.
The message is: You can say “No” to stuff you didn’t agree to, even the ‘touchy-feely ‘ ethnic and gender stuff.
Question the justification for unnecessary welcomes and cultural, ideological changes in your workplace.
Terror tactics are horrifying and repugnant causing us to recoil. They are used when conventional warfare: i.e. soldiers fighting soldiers, is not pragmatic.
The terror tactics used in Rhodesia during the time of its ‘liberation’ war included the murder of unarmed non-combatants in pitiless, gruesome fashion. This included the execution by shooting of headmen and many tribespeople “pour encourager les autres” accompanied by mutilations, abduction and rape. It included the execution of survivors of a passenger aircraft they had shot down; the murder of missionaries including the bayonetting of a 6 month old baby.
Of course, Europe had its own terrorists like the Red Army Faction which engaged in a series of bombings, assassinations, kidnappings, bank robberies, and shoot-outs with police.
Governments also use terrorism. In World War II, the Nazis executed villagers in reprisal for attacks on them by resistance partisans.
The Japanese Army is estimated to have executed millions of Chinese and Korean civilians during the same period.
Let us not omit the ultimate terror tactic deployed by the US on Japan in 1945 – the atomic bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki which killed over 200, 000 people.
Neighborhood reduced to rubble by atomic bomb blast, Hiroshima, 1945.
Sadly, terror tactics clearly have some “legitimacy” in societies across the world.
This somewhat shatters our moral high ground when considering the Hamas massacres of Israeli residents and indeed the Israeli retaliation and the US support for it.
There is some distaste for the Hamas tactic of hiding amongst the “innocent” population, but it is a brutally clever tactic. Why should non-combatants not share the fight in a liberation struggle?
Of course, this type of thinking means that the only tactic to stop this type of warfare is eradication and suppression – obliteration will buy a few years until new ideologists fire up the youth of a new generation. Unavoidably, non-combatants will also be obliterated.
We can express our horror and repugnance, but we can not condemn the morality if we too are guilty.
It goes without saying that terrorists should be stopped before they attack.
But, how is this possible?
One answer which many will not like, is universal surveillance: the continuous monitoring of every meeting, conversation and movement of ….. everybody.
Don’t be alarmed, surveillance of communications and movement is commonplace in the military and security industries, including the police. Many private houses and vehicles already have security camera systems which track you whenever you pass by; you are watched in supermarkets, bars and train stations. Internet traffic is monitored and filtered by service providers.
Why do we still need a warrant to monitor criminal activities? AI bots can monitor and notify suspicious behaviour for investigation, in real time as it happens.
It will be far more effective in stopping terrorists and criminals than analysis of historical data, so what is the downside?
After all: “freedom’s just another word for nothing left to lose”!
I wrote this poem for a poetry class some years ago.
Life today is complicated: many components beset everyday problems. The modern politician has to find the courage and wisdom of Alexander to find a solution that is simple and easy to understand.
That’s the job – finding the right sword to cut the knot.
Brexit may be regarded as an Alexandian solution, not elegant but a simple severance. Covid has masked that track, so success will be hard to judge.
Here in Australia, my thoughts drift towards theVoice as a solution to Indigenous demands for attention and appeasement of the minority zealotry prevailing in the neo-liberal generation which has permeated our universities and subverted critical thinking.
It is an elegant, simple solution, devised to meet the short span of attention engendered by the memes, tropes and tweets of modern social media.
But the longer thoughts linger, supposedly simple solutions lose their lustre. It has a good chance of failure, which may require Albo to embrace the point of his sword as opposed to the blade. How sad!
Complexity and multiplicity of contributing factors cannot be ignored. Alexander could employ radical tactics, he was backed by the biggest, most succesful army in the world. Lesser mortals in democracies have to ensure majority support.
Putin in Russia frequently slashes through Gordian knots, even decapitating military threats … but the very fact that he perceives the need to do so suggests that there are greater problems.
There is very rarely a simple solution to a complex problem, without some sort of magic, deception, smoke or mirrors..
Something Eddy Jones, the Wallabies coach knows and is trading on in the Rugby World Cup, starting tomorrow!!
I was thinking of another rant about the Woke Religion and its priests, the Voice and the courtesies we insist are paid to tyrants who we permit to flourish. But I have ranted about most of that already, so I need a change of tack.
We have too much tolerance.
We tolerate teenagers who steal and wreck the most expensive cars for Tik Tok kicks.
We tolerate demonstrators who burn and loot in their righteous displays of outrage.
We tolerate shoplifters because we are too scared to arrest them in case they create a victimisation scene.
We tolerate and compensate governments who suppress freedom, eliminate opponents and yet proclaim democracy.
We allow men claiming they are women to enter womens’ prisons despite convictions for rape of females
We give girls drugs to stop their sexual development and allow them to have their breasts removed, sometimes withhout parental consent.
We tolerate the mass murderers we catch, providing lifetime accommodation in our prisons.
We shoot mad dogs and any dangerous animal.
We also train soldiers in ways to efficiently kill people our governments declare are enemies; often in cold blood.
My recommendation is that we re-institute the death sentence for murderers and serial rapists.
Their places in our prisons can be filled by those who wilfully damage property.
We must also stop meeting tyrants and refuse them entry into our world.
I believe that the deterrent effect of capital punishment for terrible crimes will reverberate and reset the respect for societal values that has disappeared.
David Pocock was a great rugby player and I admire his impetus and integrity as a Senator. He recently called on Rugby Australia and all sporting bodies to support the call for a Voice in Australia.
I take exception to that – to me it’s like telling all sportspeople they must take a knee.
I accept this document represents the views and beliefs of many Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders and that these various indigenous peoples were the sovereign rulers of Australasia at the time of European colonisaion.
Sovereignty relates to power. So, prior to colonisation, the indigenous people had the power over the land. They certainly were not united as one people and battles were common ** and it is assumed sovereignty over land changed over time – that is the explicit nature of mankind.
Colonisation is an economic force and those who are technologically superior will prevail, by seduction or force or both. The colonised are suppressed until over time they are assimilated or rise up and overthrow the colonists. That is the history of mankind.
The Uluru statement infers that longevity of possession confers eternal sovereignty over the land and states that the indigenous people “must one day return thither and be united with …. ancestors”.
It is remarkable to note the religosity that surrounds this concept of custody and ownership of the land – it has permeated Australian social values and is pronounced at every major public spectacle. A remarkable public relations coup!
Attachment to the land and access to the graves of ancestors is not just an Aboriginal thing – but they have made it iconic.
It cannot be disputed that Aboriginals have proportionally higher representation amongst the incarcerated and that children are alienated from their families at unprecedented rates. There are protestations that “we are not innately criminal” which suggests that while there may be evidence they committed crimes or abuse, they should somehow be exonerated as the victims of rapacious colonists.
Whatever and wherever, there is a strong case for effective and cohesive actions to be taken to facilitate opportunities to escape the spiral of ignorance, indulgence, poverty and crime.
However, the guilt scars left by the treatment of the stolen generation are strongly etched in the Australian psyche and the Voice is possibly seen as a simple way to ease that guilt. Virtue signalling is very fashionable at the moment…
The statement talks of possession of the land i.e. ownership … does that not suggest that ultimately there must be compensation for historical dispossession at today’s values?
It seems that the Voice is saying: Show me the money…!
In the US, some local governments are contemplating compensating present day African Americans for the hardships of slavery. The Canadian government will pay A$3billion in compensation to hundreds of Indigenous communities for decades of abuse suffered by First Nations, Métis and Inuit children in residential schools. The Maori in New Zealand have wrung millions from the Crown in recent years, which is an enticing precedent.
In the African sub-continent of my birth, there is a great push by Nguni tribes for return or recompense for land they once possessed for a while, and they are not even of First Nations aristocracy, just recent tenants!
Let us be clear on what is being sought:“substantive constitutional change and structural reform….to empower our people…... a Makaratta Commission to supervise a process of agreement making between governments and First Nations”
This is needed to end “the torment of our powerlessness“
The indigenous people are seeking more power than that which they share with non-indigenous Australians.
This is a classic manifestation of Woke thinking: generate guilt and moral wrong by highlighting historical inequalities and injustices and impute the blame on the current electorate and demanding rectification by reconstructing society and its institutions.
This is a modern application of democracy based only on sentiment.
Looked at objectively, granting more power to Indigenous people will only differentiate them more and cost more, with no guarantee of upliftment.
Beneficial action to uplift segments of society does not require constitutional amendment it requires clarity of purpose, consultation and adherence to a course of action.
Before you vote in the referendum, think carefully about the implications and why you are doing it.
Is it just to show you are sorry or do you believe it is right to give more power (money) to a differentiated sector of the population, based on that difference?
And who will be next? L G B T Q I … ?
*Uluru Statement from the Heart referendumcouncil.org.au/sites/default/files/2017-05/Uluru_Statement_From_The_Heart_0.PDF
The long Easter weekend was often a lonely one for me as a young man when I lived in Rhodesia, a country at war. My friends were either on call up for military duties or visiting their families; my family was too far away for a long weekend.
So, I often pondered the meaning of life, god and my own trajectory, making myself melancholy by listening to Kristofferson’s “Sunday morning coming down”
Now I listen to old, sad Easter hymns on Good Friday and Handel’s Messiah on Easter Sunday. I am still moved by the memories and emotions of old beliefs.
My mind seems to be stimulated by the four quiet days of the long weekend – in fact it is in a whirl, tormented by the mess the world seems to be in.
We are in need of a Messiah in our world today, or several Messiahs….
Peter Turchin is a complexity scientist who works in the field of historical social science that he and his colleagues call Cliodynamics.
He has done extensive analysis of historical societal collapses and writes:
…. data indicated that we were well along the road to political disintegration. The structural factors undermining social stability in past societies—popular immiseration, elite overproduction, and state fragility—were all trending in negative directions in the early twenty first century America.*
I would extend his analysis to the the whole western world, at least, if not the whole world. We do not need another world war in less than a century since the last one…. or do we? Maybe we deserve the pain and horrors of holocausts and brutality in order to get our world straight?
Back to what I see as a global mess: Russia /Ukraine, China, Africa in general, some of the South Americas, the whole of the Middle East, all in the grip of corrupt autocrats who have little regard for the worth of individuals other than themselves. (Dare I add the US to that list?)
The bickering over climate and the lack of common environmental purpose. The iconoclasm of the Woke erosion of free expression and re-ordering of morality, the inertia of the worlds’ middle orders, the universal reverence of mammon.
The total disintegration of morality apparent in the Trump phenomenon can not and is not being denied. A huge number of US citizens are rallying around a man being pilloried for lying about paying off women with whom he committed adultery. He denies the adultery … so why did he pay them? Duhh!
Mind you it seems that almost as many US Presidents were philanderers as were not!
But it is so serious, the very fabric of politics in that country is being tattered. Couple it with the whole Woke wave demandingand receiving remuneration for injustices perpetrated on long dead people by long dead people – history is going to become expensive. That is state fragility and popular immiseration.
Elite over-productiondescribes the condition of a society which is producing too many potential elite-members relative to its ability to absorb them into the power structure. This means too many people with too much education accompanied by higher expectations than can be accommodated.
Just look at the issues with student loans in welfare societies – it is too easy to get a degree on borrowed money. Attempts to cut off that flow is a suicidal political move which will generate radical reaction from the most volatile segment of the demographic. Collecting the debt is risky enough for government!
A Marxist would probably call this bourgeois overproduction; these days we would call them wannabe elites.
That encapsulates the root illness of modern western democracies: too much entitlement and not enough individual responsibility – anything is ok if it is NIMBY (not in my back yard).
It takes catstrophic societal upheaval to get citizens to recalibrate their expectations.
I suppose it’s the first 4 letters which generate in my mind a sort of carrot up the arse, stiff upper lip, holier than thou image .
I think maybe it was a desirable trait in the days of Queen Victoria, when it denoted a moral, conservative stance. Nowadays, it is a trait of the progressives who are awake to any opportunity to denounce.
It is also the armour of the petty bureaucrat, who will follow the letter of the law despite great injustice being the consequence. e.g.:your visa renewal is refused because you paid the wrong fee; you must quit your job and leave the country.
These thoughts have been kindled by a recent article on Celebrity Slavery*:
The fashionable pursuit of reparations from celebrities, who might shell out rather than run the risk of ‘cancellation’ and humiliation, smacks of extortion.
Certainly the latter suggests a commercial morality: a skeleton of a rich man’s ancestors is far more valuable and attracts greater media attention.
Much easier to apply leverage to an individual than governments of former colonies where there aremany of the estimated 40 million people still in slavery.
Researching rectitude, I came across this graphic of virtues:
They seem pretty wet to me, grounded as I am in the more traditional cardinal virtues of prudence, fortitude , justice and temperance.
Be careful, be brave, be fair and moderate in all that you do.
If you practise those virtues you don’t need to be woke, righteous, progressive or vociferous.
*Article by Peter Kurti, The Spectator, 21 January 2023,
The world is dominated by the big 3 from last year: Ukraine, China and Covid.
The latter two are intertwined: I fear Covid will generate even more desperate measures in China, now that imprisoning those affected has failed.
The lack of data from China leads to speculation, which is the breeding ground for conspiracy theories, so I will try not to conspire.
Apparently huge numbers of Chinese people have been stricken by the virus since movement restrictions lifted with hospitals unable to cope. It is said that millions are likely to die in a very short space of time.
Most of these people are likely to be the elderly, people over 65.
That will greatly impact the ability of families to work, as grandparents were the main child carers – so widespread adjustments will be needed in highly emotive areas.
It seems possible that there will be greater discontent with the government who are likely to seen as the source of the misery and mortality.
The Chinese economy is likely to take a huge hit. International markets have all been rattled by their dependency on China and will have made significant moves to reduce that dependency.
So, will the CCP decide to distract the population and stimulate its military industrial complex with a war – the invasion of Taiwan has clearly long been planned…?
Frighteningly, the same could be said of North Korea!!!
Let us pray that they will not do so.
(Maybe western governments should cut China a break on Covid testing?)
I hesitate because I am aware of the commentator’s curse, but I think we will see peace between Russia and Ukraine and maybe the end of Putin (no tears here)
Covid outside China is a dead duck as an issue, being treated like we handle ‘flu.
Of course there will be alarums, rumbles and recriminations, but it has been moved into a boring conversation status.
The disruptions to the global economy will reverberate well into next year.
So what else?
Having become a conservative liberal as I age, I see the greatest challenge to the world as the Woke movement. Because this is a well entrenched movement based on emotion, it defies objective argument. Indeed part of its campaign is the cancellation of opponents.
I believe it was born in USA in the 1950’s with the Civil Rights movement legitimising radical opposition to goverment policies. It has always been fashionable for students to be left wing and radical. Che Guevarra spawned generations of revolutionaries and became the ubiquitous countercultural symbol of rebellion and global insignia in popular culture.
Aluta continua!
American imperialism in Korea, Vietnam, the Middle East, Afghanistan has alienated many people , who regard America and capitalism as the Great Satan.
Many attacks on western institutions such as democracy, freedom of speech, the rule of law and criticisms and protests have been levelled through universities, which have become the home not only of intelligensia, but the idle rich too. They also have become fertile grounds for agents provocateurs who know the untrammeled reverence the western world has for Freedom.
Social media has become the bludgeon of the wokesters, but seems largely disdained by conservatives.
The people of the US, which is a supposed torchbearer of democracy and the free world, have become deeply divided to the extent that further insurrection is quite feasible.
Maybe the world woke war will be fought there? I am repulsed by the idea that Trump may be the leader of anti-Wokesters, but that seems somehow to be how the narrative is shaping up.
For most of the 20th century left-of-center politics was defined by class struggle between the rich and the poor. Now the left has been completely subsumed by identity politics, the struggles for historically disadvantaged demographic groups for equality. Unfortunately the class struggle (which largely drove the oppression of women and minorities) has been all but forgotten by mainstream liberal politicians and political parties.
In Australia, the battle of Woke will be the the referendum for a Voice.
Africa will definitely be Woke as they see new sources of money in reparations for slavery and colonial conquests. Notwithstanding the endemic corruption, nepotism, discrimination, xenophobia, female subjugation and genital mutilation, which are ignored and if mentioned attract immediate cancellation of the mentioner . (Oh dear…maybe I’ll be cancelled too!)
Cultural values have changed and now appear to be totally under the influence of prevailing media.
I think 2023 will see clarification of the division between Woke and the Tories
The huge gaps in wealth between the very rich and the rest is eroding capitalism’s credibility.
The antics and influence of corporate billionaires appear to proceed unchecked and we should pray that they remain philanthropic and benevolent.
In Europe, right wing factions will grow in direct proportion to the waves of Third World refugees flooding over their borders.
If you do not like something speak out, do not avoid the issue
de l’audace, encore de l’audace, et toujours de l’audace is what is needed.
“Patsy” – American slang for somebody who has been set up to take the risk and the blame.
“Grifter” – con artist,scammer
There are a number of ways to attack a government other than in open Parliament and through the ballot box.
What better than a sex scandal ?
‘A sex scandal the party can be proud of. Another Barnaby but without the baby haha,’
Maybe somebody thought about that and made a plan.
So, around 4 a.m. one Saturday morning in March 2019, about a fortnight before a federal election is called, the female parliamentary aide who texted about a sex scandal, is found by security, lying naked on a couch in a minister’s office. Woohoo! Imagine the media potential – an Australian Watergate!!
She says she is okay, turns over and goes back to sleep, eventually leaving at about 10 am that morning.
Cleaners are sent in to clean the office, but find nothing suggestive of inappropriate conduct. (Seems a somewhat routine response for a serious place like a Minister’s office?)
The following Tuesday, explanations are sought from the woman and the man with whom she had entered the buiding as to the propriety of their entry so late at night. The woman raises sexual impropriety and reports to Police at Parliament. She hadn’t reported this before.
The man is dismissed for inapproriate entry to (not at) Parliament and another unrelated matter. I wonder why she wasn’t fired too? Passing out drunk and naked in a Minister’s office?
Some 2 weeks later an election is called by the Prime Minister. Two days after that, the complainant withdraws her complaint to the Police.
In October 2020, the media and a union raise questions about workplace culture in Parliament. A review ensues as there are other shaggy stories about after hours Parliamentary hijinks. The plot thickens…
In January 2021, the woman resigns after a meeting with a prominent journalist. Hmmm!
Two days after an interview is recorded for publication, the woman re-ignites her complaint first made 22 months before with the Police.
Former MP’s, Ministers and a Prime Minister are all tarnished by allegations about their parts in the piece.
A minister is obliged to apologise for calling the complainant “a lying cow” – talk about power!
A book deal for $325000 is offered.
Notwithstanding Police advice that the case is weak and the complainant unreliable, the Director Of Public Presecution decides to proceed. Did he jump or was he pushed?
The trial commences in October 2022. The complainant is not a good witness with inconsistent and improbable evidence. She takes a mid-trial break for mental health reasons and repeatedly weeps in public … something she said she could do again on tv, if required.
The jury is undecided and a protracted deliberation ensues. Fortuitously or unfortunately, a juror is found to have considered material extraneous to the trial and a mistrial is declared.
The plot gets thicker… The complainant goes to work for a former Labor Prime Minister!
But wait there’s more – both parties are now suing for damages, the complainant apparently while still under treatment for a mental condition.
No one has yet openly raised the possibility that the complainant is lying.
Other than her word, which is not convincing, there is no corroboratory evidence indicating sex occured.
Maybe her fragile nerves are a consequence of lies and the temptation of feminist fame and big bucks?!
Maybe she is a patsy, being manipulated by others?
There is big money and acres of potential scandal. Maybe she is a grifter…?
My money is on the former. I reckon she’s been inflated by others who see benefit in prolonging the chaos that has ensued.
It is important that you think about this matter which has extremely wide repercussions:
It probably contributed to the LNP election loss and downfall of a Prime Minister
Parliamentary security was demonstrated as culpably lax; there is a strong suggestion that late night shenanigans are not unusual.
The DPP’s initial decision to prosecute was improper, at worst by political direction, which indicates gross interference and dereliction of duty
The attempts to amend the Evidence Act suggest further political involvement
The civil damages suits are likely sponsored by wealthier parties than the man and woman. Cui bono?
There has been clear evidence of manipulation by the media
From a wider perspective, it is clear that our judicial system needs serious review.
Victims of sexual violence need to be better protected but not at expense of the presumption of innocence.
The Jury system is no longer fit for purpose.
The right to silence should be suspended by warrant based on substantial implicatory evidence. In other words, if a magistrate is satisfied that sufficient evidence exists to require explanation, he shall issue a directive requiring the person implicated to answer questions, perhaps in a closed court session.
Lie detector tests should be required for all witnesses.
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