the future ain’t what it used to be

End Times

I have been entertaining some deep thoughts prompted by others and Trumpmania.

Now maybe irrelevant speculation….. !? It seems Israel has released the brakes and stomped on the accelerator…!

The lessons of world history are clear…

When the equilibrium between ruling elites and the majority tips too far in favour of elites, political instability is all but inevitable.

As income inequality surges and prosperity flows disproportionately into the hands of the elites, the common people suffer, and society-wide efforts to become an elite grow ever more frenzied… once a society steps on the road to crisis, it resembles a massive ball rolling down a narrow valley with steep slopes.

It’s very difficult to stop or even deflect its rush to an impending disaster.

But once the ball arrives at the crisis point, the valley opens up—there are many ways to exit the crisis.

Some paths lead to a complete disaster and utter collapse. Other trajectories manage to avoid the bloodshed of a revolution or a civil war.

Broadly-based well-being is a key variable in the structural-demographic theory, while its opposite, popular immiseration, is one of the most important drivers for instability

He [Tyrchin] calls this process the wealth pump; it’s a world of the damned and the saved.

And since the number of such positions remains relatively fixed, the overproduction of elites inevitably leads to frustrated elite aspirants, who harness popular resentment to turn against the established order.

Turchin’s models show that when this state has been reached, societies become locked in a death spiral it’s very hard to exit.

Peter Turchin End Times – Cliodynamica

The Iron Law of Oligarchy. In short, power corrupts.

Behavioural Sink is a term coined to describe the behaviour of rats living in an experimental utopia with ample food and no threats

They clustered together in one area and their behaviour deteriorated.

Sort of like the impact of urbanisation on humans…

I also watched a brief video on Fascism and the scenes from LA prompted thoughts of Kristalnacht in 1938 Germany.

Deliberate overuse of power to stoke up resistance from a target population. There is a Fuhrer and sycophantic toadies and brutal bullying and suppression of opposition.

Deaths of Despair*

Life expectancy in the United States has recently fallen for three years in a row—a reversal not seen since 1918 or in any other wealthy nation in modern times. In the past two decades, deaths of despair from suicide, drug overdose, and alcoholism have risen dramatically, and now claim hundreds of thousands of American lives each year—and they’re still rising.

In [their] critically important book, Case and Deaton tie the crisis to the weakening position of labour, the growing power of corporations, and, above all, to a rapacious health-care sector that redistributes working-class wages into the pockets of the wealthy. Capitalism, which over two centuries lifted countless people out of poverty, is now destroying the lives of blue-collar America.

… for those who used to prosper in America, capitalism is no longer delivering.

*https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691190785/deaths-of-despair-and-the-future-of-capitalism

Quite recently I was told that there was a snake in my vicinity which could strike at any time! If it did I should call an ambulance immediately. Also, it would be better if I didn’t move around in case it struck!

I suggested not finishing mowing the lawn. However, that was ruled out at home. “If you are going to die, you are going to die – it’s the same for all of us.”

Well, that was the best advice. No panic, no worrying … almost a secret pleasure. The prospect of imminent death was not at all daunting. Maybe a bit of regret that I wouldn’t be at my wake. I did suggest it as a possibility. Maybe I could be borrowed from the undertakers and propped up in the corner with a beer in my hands…?

That’s not exactly what really happened…

My doctor had cut off a mole and sent it off for checking. She also sent me to a cardiologist to check my ticker. He sent me for some tests.

As arranged, my doctor phoned to report if the mole was dubious or not. It was not.

But, she had the results of my CT test…

I was to take 300 aspirin immediately and one every day forever.
I was not to do anything strenuous and if I had any discomfort, no matter what, I was to call an ambulance!
She was booking me into hospital for angioplasty.

That’s when I asked about the lawn and the washing up.

The snake was a clogged coronary artery, which seemed to be a serious situation.

However, I saw my cardiologist a few days later and he said:

Nah, relax –it’s not a problem, we will treat it medically. It has been there a long time. If it hasn’t killed you by now, it is not likely to do so.

He is a very good doctor – he just prescribed a few pills and didn’t even put me on a diet!

So my plans for a wake are on ice.

Quite an impressive tale to tell and some of my children seemed concerned, which was heart warming.

On a slightly less jocular note, I was surprised. I was not remotely concerned by my doctor’s alarm and urgent arrangements for heart surgery.

On second thoughts, is it depressing that the thought of my death doesn’t alarm me? … I wonder if there is Beck’s in heaven? If the beer is warm, I have probably gone to hell…

Empty head

… not a good way to start a new year.

But it’s Friday and my son commented on the absence of blog blather recently. It is of some solace that somebody noticed.

The real reason for the absence of new air hot year predictions is that I am a doomsayer that didn’t get it quite right.

Peace has not yet blessed the Middle East nor Ukraine, but it looks to be soon.
I did Trumpet the the new US Pres, but not the extraordinary global impact thereof
Covid has seen a major slowing of China’s economy
The swing to the right in western democracies is gathering momentum: goodbye Trudeau, good riddance
- Who else will go? Macron? Scholtz? Starmer? Albanese? (please!)
  - The Muskimpact on technology and economics has been phenomenal; his forays in communications are redefining political dimensions and the expression of the peoples’ wishes. (Wait! Isn’t that democracy?)
  - Jordan Peterson seems to be doing Robbie Williams’ Better Man type of change
  - The influence of influencers defies imagination and logic.
  - The Wallabies could win the Lions Tests, but don’t bet too much on it.

Ends and Odds

My view is that Harris was a token woke candidate, all flash and no substance. The facts that she was female and slightly dark in colour did not make up for her lack of real substance. The predominance and preference of dark hued wonders in her campaign was shallow and forced. I am relieved she didn’t get in.

A bit nervous about Trump but he is at least highly intelligent, if a bit unstable.

This election comes at a time when people all over the world are unhappy with where their countries are going, and they don’t trust their political institutions to right the ship. Some of that is a product of the deepening geopolitical recession, which is in part driven by a backlash against globalization and the globalist elites who promoted their own economic and political interests at the expense of their populations. Some of it has to do with the economic and social disruption caused by post-pandemic surges in inflation and immigration.

Ian Bremmer, Gzero 7 Nov

Watermelon seeds are high in protein and antioxidants, and the company says they provide a creamy texture similar to traditional dairy while avoiding allergens like nuts or soy.
Milk alternatives alone make up 36% of all plant-based sales in the US, and almond still reigns supreme
Meat consumption will continue to be mired in identity politics and meat reduction as a climate crisis mitigation solution will continue to be ignored by regulators and policymakers;

A common narrative is that the gender imbalance across professions is a sign that it is not an egalitarian society.

The more egalitarian a society is, the greater the gender gap in STEM enrollment. This suggests that men and women have different preferences when it comes to choosing a profession

Sweden is an extremely egalitarian society and many professions are extremely gender dominated Construction and mining: 91% men Preschool: 94% women

… One day, Tesla owners may be able to send their vehicles off to offer rides on their own, driving others around to increase each individual vehicle’s utility by five to 10 times.

The robotaxi would also be charged wirelessly, through inductive charging

Quantumrun – The Futures No 78

Get down, Woman

That is the title of a song written by John Fogerty and first performed by Creedence Clearwater Revival in 1968 (see below for lyrics). I do not remember hearing it before today, but it expressed something that has been gnawing at my gut for some time.

The words are not an instruction, but a plea, which is right for the times. The demands and displays by Western women seeking equality with men and the end to the exploitation and subjugation of women by men have grown and spread like a fever.

I support those objectives. However, I believe that the male and female psyche evolved in our lizard brains and are ingrained in our culture and beliefs. The physically stronger male is driven to dominate and impress with his superior skills and strength; the physically weaker but more astute female seeks out and enthralls the strong male who is likely to be a good provider and protector.

The growing economic independence of women in society since the industrial revolution has gathered impetus and has increasingly challenged and diminished men’s unrestricted dominance in the Western, Christian world.

The unrelenting criticism of male behaviour in modern times is increasingly shrill and condemnatory; its sheer volume pronouncing guilt without need for process.

The solidarity expressed in the #metoo campaign is phenomenal, but dangerous, because the allegations are historic and invariably tarnished by the time lapse between incident and outrage.

The offences are deemed to be so gross and prevalent that all humanity is required to unhesitatingly condemn any and all allegations!

Children are likely to be infused with suspicions and fears that their fathers and all men are beasts, out to subjugate and molest them because they are weaker.

Males are shrinking away and not engaging in this emotionally charged debate nor seeking a way forward. History is against them, crime has been re-defined retrospectively and they have been judged and found wanting (no pun intended)…

Males will be less likely in future to abuse their superiority. The yin will repel the yang.

However, the offer of an apple will be less successful. A lot more affirmative action will be required to compel employment equity. Like all artificial remedies, its success is likely to be limited. The male propensity for sulking and resentment is profound: the chasm between the sexes will widen with less willing help from the incumbent, dominant male majority.

Resentment will fester, western society may sunder.

Cultures, where women remain subjugated, will flourish and dominate societies riven by sanctimonious crusades and repressed resentment; torn by the yin and neutered yang of democratic politics.

So thos is a re-post. I believe it is still relevant.

Get Down Woman by Creedence Clearwater Revival

Well, get down woman, before I have to go.
Well, get down woman, before I have to go.
You know, ya hurt me with your bad mouth,
An’ I just don’t wanna know.

Well, slow down, baby, and gimme a little time.
Well, slow down, baby, and gimme a little time.
If you want me hangin’ ’round,
Gotta give me some peace of mind.

Oh, get down boy.

Well, get back, woman, before you bring it down.
Well, now, get back, baby, before you bring it down.
Or you can tell it to the wall,
Without me hangin’ around.

Originally posted on 16 March 2018 – it was somehow removed from the list.

I’m an old country boy

An old friend came to town from up North and said let’s catch up somewhere.

We decided on a 10 a.m. brunch in a cafe near the central station and his flat. I am somewhat of a hermit and get lost easily, so hate going into the city.

I have never worked or lived in a city except Salisbury in the 1970’s, which was really a large town with mild traffic in those days. Then 10 years ago in Australia, I commuted by train to an inner suburb from an outer suburb for 2 months – I still shudder…

Timetables were checked and the way to the cafe (just 7 minutes walk) and I had my phone… so girded my loins.

Only had to wait 12 minutes for the train (better early than never..). There was a seat near the door, pity about the school trip into the city. Young people can chatter!

Got to Central station without mishap. Found an exit, hobbled down stairs … left or right? Go right … oops! should be heading to Ann Street, which is the other way. More stairs… Just as well I had allowed an extra 10 minutes to find my way.

There are a lot of people in a city; why are they all on the same pavement as me?All looking purposeful and calm, politely sidestepping my hesitant shambling amble.

Ann Street, go right to Edward Street – easy peasy, only 100m to go, cross to the left, down the hill. Hmmm! better check my phone map. It says destination 9 minutes away – I’d thought it was 7 from the station..? Carry on and find a landmark to check if you are going the right way.

Can’t read street names on map; Yikes! it now says 11 minutes from destination!

So back up the hill I trudge, past Ann Street. Now 5 minutes late and at a wiggly crossroads where my phone map says cross left then right then do a wiggle and you are there. Confused I gaze about seeking clues…

Ting! A message no doubt asking where am I. My friend knows me well. It says: “Do u know where you going? There is no signage but in the snazzy building at the bottom of Jacob’s Ladder behind the revolving door!“

I look up and there across the road is a revolving door. I felt a bit like Alice in Wonderland searching for the White Rabbit. I found him behind the revolving door.

We had a good old friend reunion, which was reasuring. I almost envied his cool equilibrium about visiting the city, but remembered he had worked in Durban City for many years.

Finding my way back was easy, I even found a shortcut by reading the signs. Waited only 7 minutes for a train and had remembered to go to the loo, so there was no stress.

I am so glad I am a country boy, so glad that I will not be around in 50 years when it will be like a city everywhere, unless you travel miles inland … for a while.

Ya Nincompoop!

nincompoop (plural nincompoops)

(derogatory) A foolish or silly person. [from 16th c.] synonyms ▲quotations ▼Synonyms: dunderhead, fool, imbecile, nitwit,
gaby, hammerhead, putz; see also Thesaurus:fool

It seems that insults or slurs are subject to fashion and context.

“You little monkey” is often heard from proud mothers beaming at agile, mischievious infants. However, it is a gross insult for dark skinned people, particularly hulking great sportsmen!

As an African I am keenly aware that the K-word is a definite no word and is felt as a terrible insult by black Southern Africans. Yet Afrikaners frequently referred to their own chubby little children as klein kaffertjies, as a sign of endearment.

I recall some years ago yelling out in exasperation “O you baboon!” at a rugby game when one of my son’s team mates dropped the ball, missing a certain try.

After the game, I was delicately taken to task (I usually gave lifts to the players and was a faithful fan). It was said that exasperation was acceptable and they were happy for the exchange of hairdresser for baboon.

I suppose one should not use even that as exasperated critique at a rugby match these days….

I am sure if I called my wife a cabbage, she would resent it, yet in France it is a term of endearment.

In a change of direction we see that Sam Kerr, who has an Indian grandmother, was arrested for calling a cop a stupid white bastard.

I wonder which word makes it an insult ?

There is a whole list of ethnic slurs in Google for almost every country or ethnicity: quite enetertaining reading and in a way an account of history.

Identity slurs have become a political weapon, capable of being exaggerated and sensationalised until the fallout stuns the nation. How did simple words get so over inflated into righteous causes? You bitch is not a nice thing to say; you black/white bitch is a mortal sin, likely to entrance the nation for a week!

Back in the day, if one was insulted, one returned the insult or biffed the insulter on the nose or walked away. Now we huff and puff and the house is blown down by the selective Mother Grundy zealots determined to impose their values and solutions on our world. And the media pumps it up with suitable tones of horror and barely suppressed outrage.

What happened to “Sticks and stones can break your bones, but words will never harm you”??

It really is a matter of choice – but there seems to be so much ado about nothing!!

It is time that the nanny response to such small stuff is shelved and we need some brave politicians and editors to say so.

Ya piddle nishers!

The Janus Perspective

As the god of transitions and dualities, Janus is portrayed with two faces—one facing the past, and one facing the future. He also holds a key in his right hand, which symbolizes his protection of doors, gates, thresholds, and other separations or openings between spatial boundaries.

That is where we are – in transition. At least I desperately hope so!

At last the Western world, which I identify with as the best civilisation in this age, has awoken to the threat within its walls.

The erosion of identity politics, uncontrolled borders and hordes of refugees from alien cultures, the surplus of elites, declining educational standards, scant academic rigour and the dearth of strong politicial leadership has hollowed western democracies.

In 376 AD, a large migration of Goths and other non-Roman people, fleeing from the Huns, entered the Empire. Roman forces were unable to exterminate, expel or subjugate them… The Roman elites were beset by squabbling and in-fighting and the Roman Empire disintegrated.

Western polities are in the throes of an identity crisis which has enfeebled them, allowing more primitive, authoritarian cultures to infiltrate our institutions and values. Internal attacks on history, convention, institutions have been endured to their detriment.

We’ve been redefining deviancy so as to exempt much conduct previously stigmatised
Senator DP Moynihan, c.1994, quoted by Tom Switzer, Weekend Australian 30 Dec 2023

The moral outrage displayed under the Black Lives Matter banner fuelled the looting, toppling of statues, burning of cars and widespread defiance and confrontation of police. The cause was the death in police custody of George Floyd, a drug using criminal.

Such was the righteousness of this outrage that Democrat Senators took a knee as did many sportspeople, virtue signalling their acceptance of guilt for somehow being the cause of the failure of a huge majority of black people to succeed in modern society.

A number of state governments began considering paying reparations for slavery 100’s of years ago, at the expense of current taxpayers.

This challenge to society occurred during the period that the #metoo phenomenon strengthened the cancel culture which had stifled freedom of speech in universities.

Over the last decade, the West has been inundated by floods of refugees from the Middle East and Africa. Many of these people have not been absorbed into society and are living informally in squalid conditions, contributing to huge welfare demands and a rise in violent crime.

The decades-long lenient immigration rules in the UK have resulted in a huge influx of Sout East Asians and Africans. Such is this impact that many churches in the UK have been transformed into mosques and Muslim radicals protest at military funerals. Curry and rice long surpassed fish and chips as the favourite food choice.

Decolonisation is a rallying cry of the progressive left, but it no longer means the freeing of former colonies, it means racialising and disparaging the historical legacy of Western civilization.
Frank Furedi, Weekend Australian 30 Dec 2023

2023 saw a swing to the right, with the election of right wing governments committed to crackdowns on migrants and stricter border controls. In Australia the rejection of the Voice referendum, knocked back a flimsy political virtue signal aimed at empowering Aboriginals by according them extra constitutional power.

There are clear indications that there is a strongly building conservative resistance against the ideology of multiculturalism and the rewriting of history from the viewpoint of non Europeans.

What a swing of the pendulum to the right will require is for the hitherto generally silent middle mass of the population to bestir itself and defy the attacks on freedom of speech and the the right to police public order.

It will require resolute, courageous leaders determined to hold a firm stance and withstand media pressure.

The incursion of identity politics into everyday business and social life must be resisted and diminished. The rights of parents to be informed and make decisions for their minor children must be unequivocally upheld.

It will entail the rolling back of recent liberties like illegal behaviour during demonstrations, the tolerance by governing bodies of bigotry and hate speech and increasing surveillance of society.

The hard edge of this civilizational conflict is in the proxy wars in Ukraine and Gaza. Ukraine stands against the invasion by personal direction of a ruthless, totalitarian dictator. Israel stands against those that attack its people and seek its annihilation. It is a bastion of Western democracy, surrounded by autocratic regimes probably directed by Iran.

Russia, Iran, North Korea, and China are autocratic regimes, superpowers that seek to subdue the influence of the Western world. They have a number of alliances and huge and extreme military arsenals. They operate clandestinely, funding cyber attacks and external terror groups while shaking their nuclear swords.

Israel opposes and counters Iran’s influence and confronts its proxies, Hamas, Hizbollah and the Houthis, with assistance from Western allies. Russia is assisted by Iran, China and South Korea in its war with Ukraine, who is backed by the West.

So the choice is coming closer and it is serious.

Who do you support?

The rewriters of history and seekers of reparations for slavery;

The defenders of invasions of their country and of the western constitutional democratic freedoms.

A question of balance

Terror tactics are horrifying and repugnant causing us to recoil. They are used when conventional warfare: i.e. soldiers fighting soldiers, is not pragmatic.

The terror tactics used in Rhodesia during the time of its ‘liberation’ war included the murder of unarmed non-combatants in pitiless, gruesome fashion. This included the execution by shooting of headmen and many tribespeople “pour encourager les autres” accompanied by mutilations, abduction and rape. It included the execution of survivors of a passenger aircraft they had shot down; the murder of missionaries including the bayonetting of a 6 month old baby.

Of course, Europe had its own terrorists like the Red Army Faction which engaged in a series of bombings, assassinations, kidnappings, bank robberies, and shoot-outs with police.

Governments also use terrorism. In World War II, the Nazis executed villagers in reprisal for attacks on them by resistance partisans.

The Japanese Army is estimated to have executed millions of Chinese and Korean civilians during the same period.

Let us not omit the ultimate terror tactic deployed by the US on Japan in 1945 – the atomic bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki which killed over 200, 000 people.

Neighborhood reduced to rubble by atomic bomb blast, Hiroshima, 1945.

Sadly, terror tactics clearly have some “legitimacy” in societies across the world.

This somewhat shatters our moral high ground when considering the Hamas massacres of Israeli residents and indeed the Israeli retaliation and the US support for it.

There is some distaste for the Hamas tactic of hiding amongst the “innocent” population, but it is a brutally clever tactic. Why should non-combatants not share the fight in a liberation struggle?

Of course, this type of thinking means that the only tactic to stop this type of warfare is eradication and suppression – obliteration will buy a few years until new ideologists fire up the youth of a new generation. Unavoidably, non-combatants will also be obliterated.

We can express our horror and repugnance, but we can not condemn the morality if we too are guilty.

It goes without saying that terrorists should be stopped before they attack.

But, how is this possible?

One answer which many will not like, is universal surveillance: the continuous monitoring of every meeting, conversation and movement of ….. everybody.

Don’t be alarmed, surveillance of communications and movement is commonplace in the military and security industries, including the police. Many private houses and vehicles already have security camera systems which track you whenever you pass by; you are watched in supermarkets, bars and train stations. Internet traffic is monitored and filtered by service providers.

Why do we still need a warrant to monitor criminal activities? AI bots can monitor and notify suspicious behaviour for investigation, in real time as it happens.

It will be far more effective in stopping terrorists and criminals than analysis of historical data, so what is the downside?

After all: “freedom’s just another word for nothing left to lose”!

I wrote this poem for a poetry class some years ago.

Screen

Everyone everywhere should be screened

Let the camera capture

your face, your life, your ups and

downs.

And hers and his and theirs.

All must be screened – t’will

make us feel safer and happier, until

we think about

Who screens

the Screeners.

Look at the screen

be obscene and herd:

you’re on tv!

This is our new morality

I was on tv

did you see me?

The absurdities of our kind

I was thinking of another rant about the Woke Religion and its priests, the Voice and the courtesies we insist are paid to tyrants who we permit to flourish. But I have ranted about most of that already, so I need a change of tack.

We have too much tolerance.

We tolerate teenagers who steal and wreck the most expensive cars for Tik Tok kicks.

We tolerate demonstrators who burn and loot in their righteous displays of outrage.

We tolerate shoplifters because we are too scared to arrest them in case they create a victimisation scene.

We tolerate and compensate governments who suppress freedom, eliminate opponents and yet proclaim democracy.

We allow men claiming they are women to enter womens’ prisons despite convictions for rape of females

We give girls drugs to stop their sexual development and allow them to have their breasts removed, sometimes withhout parental consent.

We tolerate the mass murderers we catch, providing lifetime accommodation in our prisons.

We shoot mad dogs and any dangerous animal.

We also train soldiers in ways to efficiently kill people our governments declare are enemies; often in cold blood.

My recommendation is that we re-institute the death sentence for murderers and serial rapists.

Their places in our prisons can be filled by those who wilfully damage property.

We must also stop meeting tyrants and refuse them entry into our world.

I believe that the deterrent effect of capital punishment for terrible crimes will reverberate and reset the respect for societal values that has disappeared.

Category: the future ain’t what it used to be