End Times

I have been entertaining some deep thoughts prompted by others and Trumpmania.

Now maybe irrelevant speculation….. !? It seems Israel has released the brakes and stomped on the accelerator…!

The lessons of world history are clear…

When the equilibrium between ruling elites and the majority tips too far in favour of elites, political instability is all but inevitable.

As income inequality surges and prosperity flows disproportionately into the hands of the elites, the common people suffer, and society-wide efforts to become an elite grow ever more frenzied… once a society steps on the road to crisis, it resembles a massive ball rolling down a narrow valley with steep slopes.

It’s very difficult to stop or even deflect its rush to an impending disaster.

But once the ball arrives at the crisis point, the valley opens up—there are many ways to exit the crisis.

Some paths lead to a complete disaster and utter collapse. Other trajectories manage to avoid the bloodshed of a revolution or a civil war.

Broadly-based well-being is a key variable in the structural-demographic theory, while its opposite, popular immiseration, is one of the most important drivers for instability

He [Turchin] calls this process the wealth pump; it’s a world of the damned and the saved.

And since the number of such positions remains relatively fixed, the overproduction of elites inevitably leads to frustrated elite aspirants, who harness popular resentment to turn against the established order.

Turchin’s models show that when this state has been reached, societies become locked in a death spiral it’s very hard to exit.

Peter Turchin End Times – Cliodynamica

The Iron Law of Oligarchy. In short, power corrupts.

Behavioural Sink is a term coined to describe the behaviour of rats living in an experimental utopia with ample food and no threats

They clustered together in one area and their behaviour deteriorated.

Sort of like the impact of urbanisation on humans…

I also watched a brief video on Fascism and the scenes from LA prompted thoughts of Kristalnacht in 1938 Germany.

Deliberate overuse of power to stoke up resistance from a target population. There is a Fuhrer and sycophantic toadies and brutal bullying and suppression of opposition.

 Deaths of Despair*

Life expectancy in the United States has recently fallen for three years in a row—a reversal not seen since 1918 or in any other wealthy nation in modern times. In the past two decades, deaths of despair from suicide, drug overdose, and alcoholism have risen dramatically, and now claim hundreds of thousands of American lives each year—and they’re still rising.

In [their] critically important book, Case and Deaton tie the crisis to the weakening position of labour, the growing power of corporations, and, above all, to a rapacious health-care sector that redistributes working-class wages into the pockets of the wealthy. Capitalism, which over two centuries lifted countless people out of poverty, is now destroying the lives of blue-collar America.

… for those who used to prosper in America, capitalism is no longer delivering.

*https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691190785/deaths-of-despair-and-the-future-of-capitalism

Paying us with our own credit card

We choose government representatives. They decide how much money to collect from us. They also determine how to spend it for our benefit.

We expect them to be honest, disciplined, anticipatory and prudent.

We expect them to spend only what they can collect.

Without fear, favour or prejudice.

Just before an election the current Australian government is paying more money to every household.

It will have to borrow money to do so.

Is it trying to persuade us it is a good government by paying us money that we will have to pay back?

Well, Jim Horner, that is our pie and our plum – you are not a good boy!

If the people re-elect this government, they deserve what they will have to pay for.

In the future, more will have to be spent on government debt than on services to the people.

This has go to stop!

Bits and pieces

These are words in my reading that resonated with me and some random thoughts of my own.

The left has long been addicted to the most desired thing in intellectual life today—transgressive edginess, hip nonconformity. … different labels and buzzy phrases: institutional racism, antiracism, anticolonialism

What they all share is a desire to seem authentically rebellious by attacking the foundations of our nation and our civilization.

The problem is that such ideological non-conformity has become so institutionalized that it’s become an expression of ideological conformity

Jonah Goldberg The Dispatch 23 Jan 2024

Not How but Why?

This is what the the leading podcaster/ influencer thinks about marketing:

“ It’s nearly always cheaper, easier and more effective to invest in perception than reality “

“Remarkably, the close button in most lifts doesn’t actually work. Lift doors are designed to close after a certain amount of time, for safety and legal reasons…. This illusionary placebo creates the impression of control, decreases uncertainty, makes you feel safer…increases customer satisfaction.”

“Do not wage a war on reality, invest in shaping perceptions.

Our truth is not what we see.

Our truth is the story we choose to believe”

We believe that we are rational

“Our decisions aren’t driven by sense, they’re driven by the nonsense created by social cues, irrational fear and survival instincts “

Stephen Bartlett: Diary of a CEO

Bureaucracy has swamped democracy, radical reform is the only solution. Elon Musk and the Donald agree with me.

Interesting ABC News article declaiming the dwindling  number of female ministers since that door was opened.

Guess who?

“One way he differs from every other president of my lifetime is that sometimes he just says stuff and no one, including some of his own aides, knows whether he means it or not. With good reason: Understanding his motives requires untangling a rat’s nest of strategic considerations, “dark triad” personality traits, anger-control issues, and insatiable avarice, all of it soaked in the logic of populist propaganda in which he’s constantly dousing himself.

Nick Cartoggio The Dispatch

This seems to be the general response to President Trump’s kind offer of refugee status for Afrikaners in South Africa: “Ik wil niet loopen, k’ben een Africaander, al slaat den Landdrost myn doot, of al setten hij myn in den tronk ik sal nog wil niet swijgen.” (Translation from Dutch: I do not want to leave, I am an Afrikaner. Even if the magistrate kills me, or puts me in jail, I will still not keep quiet.) — Hendrik Briebouw, 6 March 1707, at the Stellenbosch Magistrates’ Court. 

It’s St Valentine’s Day – love the one you are with!

Another Mad Hatter’s Tea Party?

I guess I should be celebrating, making odd Musk-like salutes ‘from the heart‘ and singing ‘Yankee Doodle Dandy‘ with my South African accent..

It seems there is a mighty punch coming up for the Woke way of thinking.

The Donald’s antics and gestures are very puerile and devoid of dignity. Why all the pomp and circumstance when the top billing is a clown act?

But I keep on having flash thoughts of Alice’s Queen of Hearts and Caligula and occasionally Mussolini.

The violent white supremacist thugs who bludgeoned police officers at the Capitol were among the throng released by Trump.

* Trump launched a meme coin called $TRUMP on Friday, just days before his inauguration. Is this a new way to buy influence? Market capitalization soared to nearly $6 billion within hours. Melania also has a coin, so there! (Not called $trumpet…)

Vindicatory vengeance seems to be gushing up.

Trump’s nominee for FBI director, Kash Patel, has come up with a specific list. In Patel’s 2023 book Government Gangsters, he lists 60 current and former executive branch officials whom he refers to as members of the “Executive Branch Deep State.”

President Biden issued preemptive pardons to many people who tried to hold Trump responsible for seeking to overturn the results of the 2020 election and against whom Trump has promised “retribution.

How far will Trump’s “retribution” actually go? Should Biden have granted himself and Harris and Clinton pre-emptory pardons as well?**

Trump is notoriously antagonistic to institutions that oppose him, like the Supreme Court and the Treasury and even Congress. His promise to extend the Tik Tok deadline to 90 days is contrary to a Congressional decision. Wonder if anyone will mention that to him?

I’m not squeamish about the purge.

Government bureaucracies have either been given or have usurped the power of elected representatives. They now control society by incriminating them. The rule makers are now the real rulers.

To unravel that Gordian knot will be impossible, so only an Alexandrine sword will reduce it.

I hope Musk’s purge will trim them, slim them and refocus their purpose.

The woke way of thinking is embedded in western culture and will be resistant to jackboots and muskrats. But there will certainly be a shaking up of the fashionable fringe followers, so that’s a start.

I wonder whether Trump will be constrainable or will he have to go the way of Caligula?

 *Daniel Hampton – https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/

**Robert Reich January 21, 2025 That’s interesting:’ Did Trump just launch a new conspiracy theory? – Alternet.org

Empty head

… not a good way to start a new year.

But it’s Friday and my son commented on the absence of blog blather recently. It is of some solace that somebody noticed.

The real reason for the absence of new air hot year predictions is that I am a doomsayer that didn’t get it quite right.

  • Peace has not yet blessed the Middle East nor Ukraine, but it looks to be soon.
  • I did Trumpet the the new US Pres, but not the extraordinary global impact thereof
  • Covid has seen a major slowing of China’s economy
  • The swing to the right in western democracies is gathering momentum: goodbye Trudeau, good riddance
    • Who else will go? Macron? Scholtz? Starmer? Albanese? (please!)
      • The Muskimpact on technology and economics has been phenomenal; his forays in communications are redefining political dimensions and the expression of the peoples’ wishes. (Wait! Isn’t that democracy?)
      • Jordan Peterson seems to be doing Robbie Williams’ Better Man type of change
      • The influence of influencers defies imagination and logic.
      • The Wallabies could win the Lions Tests, but don’t bet too much on it.

Tough Love

I have just read “in Cold Blood”, a novel by Truman Capote, based on a real event in Kansas in 1959.

Two petty criminals who met in prison, agreed to rob a rich farmer in Kansas after their release.

They made preparations and an alibi and drove 800 miles, broke in late at night, tied up the four family members. There was no safe. They shot all four victims leaving with just $40 and a portable radio.

All they did leave was a bloody footprint.

They were identified by a former cell mate, who had told them of the rich farmer and been told by them of their plans to rob him

Arrested, they confessed and were tried, duly being sentenced to death.

There was a suggestion that the accused did not feel it was wrong … and that should save them from the noose.

To no avail – they were hanged in 1965 after many appeals.

As was right and just.

Many countries have now abolished the death penalty. Terrible crimes can be punishable by life imprisonment. This can actually mean as little as a dozen years in prison before parole is granted. At huge cost to the State.

At the 2021 “Summit for Democracy” President Biden said:

“Today, democracy is under more pressure than at any time since the 1930s….  Will we allow the backward slide of rights and democracy to continue unchecked? Democracy doesn’t happen by accident. We have to renew it with each generation. […] In my view, this is the defining challenge of our time.

President Macron said: ..”… the only political model that allows us to defend these rights and freedoms: democracy” –, adding that the fight was “more necessary than ever”.

Many are beginning to believe that: …the time has come for a world dominated by authoritarian powers, that the historical cycle of freedom has come to an end…..

So we see the surge of influence by authoritarian regimes. They have no compunction in using their power to obliterate opposition.

There, criminals receive short shrift, death penalties are common for all manner of acts. At the same time the sowing of destruction outside borders is actively promoted.

The democratic Western polities struggle mightily with huge issues like the right to declare oneself to be the opposite gender and unfettered rights to abortion.

Governments are unable to say “No”. Police must wear kid gloves to restrain the dangerous and disobedient. They must do so with a compulsory delicate etiquette. Children wreak havoc again and again despite frequent arrest.

Politicians are powerless to act without being pilloried by vociferous public dissent. They seek to keep their positions through the buying of public affection with the reckless disbursement of our revenue.

No wonder we are dissolving into disillusioned leaderless mobs, changing side every week. Soon the demagogues will turn vigilante.

We need some hard leaders who can say:

  • We will act to solve our problems, despite outcry.  We did it in the pandemic, we can do it again.
  • Stop pussyfooting: squash disorder and crime quickly using the most effective means.
  • No more public protests stopping traffic. If students fail, they leave university. If they misbehave, they will be expelled. They will repay their loans in full.
  • The Review Tribunal will clear the Immigration backlog. Illegal entrants will be removed and can appeal from offshore. No more refugees/asylum seekers
  • Tax carbon emissions; incentivise clean energy systems; let the market prevail.
  • Minimise imports, maximise home grown
  • Labour disputes to be resolved by Tribunals.

These are the things I would do if I was PM:

  • Introduce nuclear power stations
  • Introduce National Service for all school leavers
  • Ban gender transition until 18 years of age
  • Bring back the death penalty for murder, child molestation and drug traffickers
  • Limit the right to silence, requiring explanations for compelling evidence. I would also dispense with juries
    • Media would be banned from interviewing witnesses or accused persons.

WGEA

Workplace Gender Equality Act

Women in Australia earn 28% less than men!

This type of bite size statistic is a hallmark of the sensational disinformation used by identity politicians.

In my last blog, I mentioned that the incoming Labor government had added 26000 jobs to the payroll.

This statistic is the type of work they do

It is illegal to pay women less than men for doing the same work.

Prosecute the bastards that do that! Don’t squeal and puff out meaningless statistics.

  • More women than men choose to stay home to care for their children and parents.
  • Fewer women work fewer years than men.
  • Fewer women work in dangerous and isolated occupations than men.
  • Fewer women (only 15%*) follow STEM careers

* https://www.industry.gov.au/

Note the above Ministry also collects gender data…

Of course, I am sure that other identity imbalances have not nearly been addressed appropriately. What about the representation of lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, queer, questioning, intersex and asexual, aromantic/agender people ?

(Oh! don’t forget + additional identities that are not included in the acronym).

All of them should have their own departments and compliance legislation too.

Soon only racist, misogynist, misanthropic bigots will not be employed by government!

Purge

At a time when most Western democracies are burdened by disillusion, poor economic and social outcomes and leadership that lacks either conviction or courage, Trump arrives as a giant on the stage of history

In his campaign Trump has promised “… savage public-sector cuts, a reduction in federal bureaucratic numbers, a purging of regulation, cutting taxes…extending tariffs… dismantling environmental obstacles to development, a domestic war on ..identity politics, boosting defence spending..”

If Trump succeeds …

the governance model for Western democracy will be shaken to its foundations

Paul Allan Western Australian 16 Nov 2024

A purge will not be before time, I say. And this should pave the way for all Western democracies to see the writing on the wall and change.

For decades governments have swung back and forth from Democrat/Labor to Conservative/Republican. Each victory led to a replacement of supporters and sponsors. The public service bureaucracy grew because each policy promise required an executive department.

Stalin used the Secret Police in his ‘Great Purge’ in Russia from 1936 to 1938. – his methods were a bit drastic -up to 1 million people were killed.

Politicians, intelligentsia, critics, government officials and the army were targeted.

President Harry S. Truman signed an executive order in 1947 to screen federal employees for possible association with organizations deemed “totalitarian, fascist, communist, or subversive

Primary targets were government employees, prominent figures in the entertainment industry, academics, left-wing politicians, and labor union activists. McCarthy was his hit-man. Public servants were screened…

So now we will see another purge in a democracy, not a totalitarian state ! Interestingly, the same as it was before, it will be the same types and classes of people who will be purged: the bureaucrats, intellectuals and professionals….

Trump has appointed Elon Musk who said he’d cut $2 Trillion from federal bureaucracies . That’s about one third of all employees! Tell me that won’t cause a riot!

He did it to Twitter / X seemingly without crippling industrial action. Maybe he can do it on a much bigger scale.

“Progressives are no longer the party of the working class or the non- college educated…

… the incompatibility of identity politics with the liberal principle of equality … citizens’ trust in mainstream institutions has been absolutely shattered..corporations and the military, universities and the courts .. trust is gone

When people look (at these institutions) they see progressive values shoved in their faces. It’s ​n​ot the democracy they voted for.”

Politicians don’t purge, because those purged are voters.

Now it seems that this has changed, Trump doesn’t want re-election after this term. He is backed by the working class and opposed by the elites. He wants to change what the elites have done and he doesn’t care about the political risk.

Here in Australia it was reported recently that:

An estimated 70% of jobs growth since 2022 has been government funded….The 2024-25 budget showed the number of public servants had grown  by about 25% since the COVID-19 pandemic

Dan Power, The Mandarin, 18 October 2024

Now we see how politics works! Vote for me an I’ll give you a job!

I hope the Coalition ask Elon Musk for some tips before the next election!

Ends and Odds

My view is that Harris was a token woke candidate, all flash and no substance. The facts that she was female and slightly dark in colour did not make up for her lack of real substance. The predominance and preference of dark hued wonders in her campaign was shallow and forced. I am relieved she didn’t get in.

A bit nervous about Trump but he is at least highly intelligent, if a bit unstable.

This election comes at a time when people all over the world are unhappy with where their countries are going, and they don’t trust their political institutions to right the ship. Some of that is a product of the deepening geopolitical recession, which is in part driven by a backlash against globalization and the globalist elites who promoted their own economic and political interests at the expense of their populations. Some of it has to do with the economic and social disruption caused by post-pandemic surges in inflation and immigration.

Ian Bremmer, Gzero 7 Nov

  • Watermelon seeds are high in protein and antioxidants, and the company says they provide a creamy texture similar to traditional dairy while avoiding allergens like nuts or soy.
  • Milk alternatives alone make up 36% of all plant-based sales in the US, and almond still reigns supreme
  • Meat consumption will continue to be mired in identity politics and meat reduction as a climate crisis mitigation solution will continue to be ignored by regulators and policymakers;

A common narrative is that the gender imbalance across professions is a sign that it is not an egalitarian society.

The more egalitarian a society is, the greater the gender gap in STEM enrollment. This suggests that men and women have different preferences when it comes to choosing a profession  

Sweden is an extremely egalitarian society and many professions are extremely gender dominated Construction and mining: 91% men Preschool: 94% women

… One day, Tesla owners may be able to send their vehicles off to offer rides on their own, driving others around to increase each individual vehicle’s utility by five to 10 times.

The robotaxi would also be charged wirelessly, through inductive charging

Quantumrun – The Futures No 78

Pastoral

Nevil Shute wrote a love story between an RAF Pilot Officer and a Section Officer in the Womens’ Auxiliary Air Force in World War 2.

He distils the stress and strain during war on lives in a socially divided society. The encounter, enchantment and engagement are all repressed by social convention. Subterfuge had to be employed to discover names and first names were only used after the second ‘date’.

It is all very distressingly proper and restrained. It was not done to be seen together unaccompanied by others: “…. good WAAF officers did not contract relationships with young men on their own station.”

It was the two world wars which radically re-defined social conventions in the western world, particularly in Britain. Working class men showed they could fly, lead and fight just as well as the upper classes, as did foreigners and colonials and they could not be denied entry into officer ranks.

Women stepped out of the domestic and secretarial world and made huge incursions into previously male-only worlds, performing, surprisingly to men, very well.

Once a door has been opened, it is nigh impossible to shut … right Hodor?

These societal changes occurred during savagely destructive warfare, with death just another sunset away for many.

The demands for further changes to society structures and institutions have continued with the woke demands to re-define history, condemn iconic leaders for new-found blemishes, deny platforms to opposing views and tolerate deviances in those deemed to be historical victims.

In an astounding re-definition of apartheid, instead of identity being disregarded as a basis of distinction, it has become the basis for societal status with some requiring exaggerated preferment and others exclusion and condemnation.  

The impacts of this woke wave of change have seen Europe and  the US swamped with unchecked millions of African, Arab  and Latin refugees and immigrants from former colonies. Gone are the days that countries can deny entry to other than formal applicants through proper channels.

You can’t say no to a refugee or return them to their country of birth.

So we in the West are left with a different society, highly stratified and diverse with greater welfare expectations and minimal political principle to withstand changes demanded by social media.

Authoritarian regimes who enforce societal compliance will rise and dominate the world. Sharia law and Social Credit sytems will become the order of the day.

They will halt the woke erosion, by Diktat and gulag!