Well, the birds are courting and building nests here in Australia and Bauhinia are flowering, so we are nearly into Spring.
I found it boring to speculate further about the revolution and rise of fascism in the US. My raging against the woke manias was becoming vaguely repetitive. (I mean, even Jordan Petersen gets a bit much after a while..)
It being Friday, I decided to write about something else. Thank you TED Talks for reminding me of my other favourite interest: the future.
It seems that factory training led to robotic expertise in a few skills but not a growth in abilities. Using a home environment to train robots proved to be a good training context.
It seems that already millions are using Replika an app that lets you create AI friends. The developer highlights the dangers that this sort of app can increase the widespread addictions to mobile phones and social media. She urged the development of a metric which emphasized flourishing as opposed to mere engagement or ‘clicks’.
I have written before about AI companions. Woebots are chatbots provide online cognitive behaviour therapy. Digital ghosts are AI-generated avatars of deceased loved ones. Robotic pets respond to voice commands. They provide calming conversations for dementia patients…
The bottom line with all of these ‘helpful’ technologies is moderation and questioning. AI must always be tested before acceptance.
But it’s Friday and my son commented on the absence of blog blather recently. It is of some solace that somebody noticed.
The real reason for the absence of new air hot year predictions is that I am a doomsayer that didn’t get it quite right.
Peace has not yet blessed the Middle East nor Ukraine, but it looks to be soon.
I did Trumpet the the new US Pres, but not the extraordinary global impact thereof
Covid has seen a major slowing of China’s economy
The swing to the right in western democracies is gathering momentum: goodbye Trudeau, good riddance
Who else will go? Macron? Scholtz? Starmer? Albanese? (please!)
The Muskimpact on technology and economics has been phenomenal; his forays in communications are redefining political dimensions and the expression of the peoples’ wishes. (Wait! Isn’t that democracy?)
Jordan Peterson seems to be doing Robbie Williams’ Better Man type of change
The influence of influencers defies imagination and logic.
The Wallabies could win the Lions Tests, but don’t bet too much on it.
I have just read “in Cold Blood”, a novel by Truman Capote, based on a real event in Kansas in 1959.
Two petty criminals who met in prison, agreed to rob a rich farmer in Kansas after their release.
They made preparations and an alibi and drove 800 miles, broke in late at night, tied up the four family members. There was no safe. They shot all four victims leaving with just $40 and a portable radio.
All they did leave was a bloody footprint.
They were identified by a former cell mate, who had told them of the rich farmer and been told by them of their plans to rob him
Arrested, they confessed and were tried, duly being sentenced to death.
There was a suggestion that the accused did not feel it was wrong … and that should save them from the noose.
To no avail – they were hanged in 1965 after many appeals.
As was right and just.
Many countries have now abolished the death penalty. Terrible crimes can be punishable by life imprisonment. This can actually mean as little as a dozen years in prison before parole is granted. At huge cost to the State.
I believe that a society that nurtures people who commit ghastly crimes and later releases them is eventually doomed.
If we can’t pull the trigger, we are not up for the job. Remember the Lindt cafe fiasco?
Rehabilitation is an unacceptable gamble.
At the 2021 “Summit for Democracy” President Biden said:
“Today, democracy is under more pressure than at any time since the 1930s…. Will we allow the backward slide of rights and democracy to continue unchecked? Democracy doesn’t happen by accident. We have to renew it with each generation. […] In my view, this is the defining challenge of our time.
President Macron said: ..”… the only political model that allows us to defend these rights and freedoms: democracy” –, adding that the fight was “more necessary than ever”.
Many are beginning to believe that: …the time has come for a world dominated by authoritarian powers, that the historical cycle of freedom has come to an end…..
So we see the surge of influence by authoritarian regimes. They have no compunction in using their power to obliterate opposition.
There, criminals receive short shrift, death penalties are common for all manner of acts. At the same time the sowing of destruction outside borders is actively promoted.
The democratic Western polities struggle mightily with huge issues like the right to declare oneself to be the opposite gender and unfettered rights to abortion.
Governments are unable to say “No”. Police must wear kid gloves to restrain the dangerous and disobedient. They must do so with a compulsory delicate etiquette. Children wreak havoc again and again despite frequent arrest.
Politicians are powerless to act without being pilloried by vociferous public dissent. They seek to keep their positions through the buying of public affection with the reckless disbursement of our revenue.
No wonder we are dissolving into disillusioned leaderless mobs, changing side every week. Soon the demagogues will turn vigilante.
We need some hard leaders who can say:
We will act to solve our problems, despite outcry. We did it in the pandemic, we can do it again.
Stop pussyfooting: squash disorder and crime quickly using the most effective means.
No more public protests stopping traffic. If students fail, they leave university. If they misbehave, they will be expelled. They will repay their loans in full.
The Review Tribunal will clear the Immigration backlog. Illegal entrants will be removed and can appeal from offshore. No more refugees/asylum seekers
Tax carbon emissions; incentivise clean energy systems; let the market prevail.
Minimise imports, maximise home grown
Labour disputes to be resolved by Tribunals.
These are the things I would do if I was PM:
Introduce nuclear power stations
Introduce National Service for all school leavers
Ban gender transition until 18 years of age
Bring back the death penalty for murder, child molestation and drug traffickers
Limit the right to silence, requiring explanations for compelling evidence. I would also dispense with juries
Media would be banned from interviewing witnesses or accused persons.
Hopefully some brave leaders will propose love to others and generate some peace!
Good news!
Life expectancy has more than doubled since 1900
the world has become far more peaceful. In 2022, 3,5 in 100,000 people died in war, in the 20th Century, there was an average of 30 deaths per 100,000.
the annual global burned area has been declining for decades with 2022 being the lowest on record.
Deaths from famine and floods have declined almost 50 fold over the last century.
Less than 10 percent of the world lived in extreme poverty, compared to 80% in 1820.
Media coverage of conflict and other horrible incidents like crimes and natural disasters crowd out the good news that objective data shows.
Conflict
Our world is threatened by the increasing interaction of the Russia, China and IranAxis(a term recalling the World War 2 Germany, Italy and Japan alliance).
Warfare so far has been less direct, being fought by local forces, backed and supplied by sponsor world powers.
Radical threats to global trade by Iranian backed Houthis in Yemen are likely to be the catalyst for a wider war.
Israel seems to be itching to take on Iran which is also supplying Hizbollah and Hamas.
My 2023 forecast commented on the impact of Covid in China. Only estimates are available as China stats are patently false. Apparently 1.87 million excess deaths, mostly aged people occurred after the lifting of Covid restriction in December 2022. How can we know the pain and anger of that muzzled population?
Certainly the Chinese economy is not doing well. One can only see increasing authoritarian and totalitarian conduct from the Xi regime I still say a Taiwan conflict is imminent.
Even more so, now the Western power bloc is distracted by the widening of the Gaza conflict. Just to add some further spice, that rabid dog in starving North Korea is throwing artillery shells around again and making threats.
The waning of Woke
There are increasing signs that the Western world is waking up to the widespread damage and threats to its civilisation by the Woke ideology. This resistance has been powerfully articulated in the Alliance for Responsible Citizenship Conference in London in October.
The loud rejection of Woke style virtue signalling and identity political appeasement tactics was graphically demonstrated in the Australia Voice referendum.
Politics
In Europe, there has been a strong political swing to the right, caused by the increasingly uncontrolled refugee invasions from Africa and the Middle East. It will be interesting to see if Labour gets elected in the UK.
In the US, there is strong support for Trump, probably a world leader in anti Woke policy, despite repugnance for his personality and behaviour. He will be elected if the indictments against him fail to stick. He will likely stamp down on illegal immigrants.
the US political system is more dysfunctional than any other advanced industrial democracy. In 2024, the problem will get much worse. The presidential election will deepen the country’s political division, testing American democracy to a degree the nation hasn’t experienced in 150 years and undermining US credibility internationally…. the only certainty is damage to America’s social fabric, political institutions, and international standing
GZERO Daily . Ian Bremmer
In Southern Africa, blatant government bullying extinguished any chance of democratic change in Zimbabwe. The South African political landscape is disintegrating as fast as the national infrastructure with power, water and sewerage systems continuing to fail. The ports and rail systems are barely functional. Xenophobia is rife as unemployment soars.
Generally speaking democracy is not doing well and the need for strong, capable leaders has never been more urgent.
Other stuff
Artificial Intelligence is apparently producing productivity miracles, all likely to be at the expense of human roles, so ethical dilemmas abound.
My local forecasts are:
Australia will continue its cricket supremacy and rugby inferiority.
Labor may well lose the next election.
The AUKUS submarine purchase is a non-starter: delivery decades away while the world is spinning faster don’t add up.
The greening of energy generation will slow down
The Western order is still mighty but the white ant-ing of woke ideologies has harmed it immensely. The cross border migrations from vastly different cultures which have not assimilated poses major existential issues for Europe and the US.
Less than 80 years since the last world war, another on two or three fronts is trembling on the brink.
Nothing like a world war to re-set values, priorities and expectations!
The world’s largest cruise ship named “Icon Of The Seas” sets sail in January 2024. It will carry 5610 passengers and 2350 crew members.
It’s 5 times larger and heavier than the Titanic, has 19 floors with more than 40 bars, restaurants and bowling alleys; it will have 6 slides, 7 swimming pools and 9 hot tubs. It promises more than 40 ways to dine, drink and entertain, many of them included in the cruise fare.
Picture yourself on a majestic cruise ship, where the mission is to devour copious amounts of food, boogie down on the dance floor, indulge in endless beverages, and splash around like a slip-n-slide champion.
Ahoy, matey! Get ready for a hilariously epic adventure on this floating wonderland!
NOT!!
But that is a foretaste of what our futureworld is going to look like – thousands crammed into small areas with carnivals on all corners to keep them happy.
In the cities anyway; for a while, in the outback, there will be space and freedom to move and breathe. But soon everyone will be enthralled by the media to follow the trend directions of the mass manipuleteers.
Very few will be able to withstand the pressure to conform and wear hoodies under blazers, boilersuits and tractor trek-sole boots; drink trendy snap chilled coffee, dine on sobrassada, ricotta and escabeche, rump cap and softserves.
Only for a while of course, until the new trends are put in motion and the masses follow the prompts of their latest model i-phones.
We are lucky that while there is a lemming like rush to live in cities, especially on the coast, there is a corresponding vacuum being created in the small country towns and hamlets…
Well, I have probably squashed sufficient sensitivities to stimulate at least one retort (I hope) …..
The world is dominated by the big 3 from last year: Ukraine, China and Covid.
The latter two are intertwined: I fear Covid will generate even more desperate measures in China, now that imprisoning those affected has failed.
The lack of data from China leads to speculation, which is the breeding ground for conspiracy theories, so I will try not to conspire.
Apparently huge numbers of Chinese people have been stricken by the virus since movement restrictions lifted with hospitals unable to cope. It is said that millions are likely to die in a very short space of time.
Most of these people are likely to be the elderly, people over 65.
That will greatly impact the ability of families to work, as grandparents were the main child carers – so widespread adjustments will be needed in highly emotive areas.
It seems possible that there will be greater discontent with the government who are likely to seen as the source of the misery and mortality.
The Chinese economy is likely to take a huge hit. International markets have all been rattled by their dependency on China and will have made significant moves to reduce that dependency.
So, will the CCP decide to distract the population and stimulate its military industrial complex with a war – the invasion of Taiwan has clearly long been planned…?
Frighteningly, the same could be said of North Korea!!!
Let us pray that they will not do so.
(Maybe western governments should cut China a break on Covid testing?)
I hesitate because I am aware of the commentator’s curse, but I think we will see peace between Russia and Ukraine and maybe the end of Putin (no tears here)
Covid outside China is a dead duck as an issue, being treated like we handle ‘flu.
Of course there will be alarums, rumbles and recriminations, but it has been moved into a boring conversation status.
The disruptions to the global economy will reverberate well into next year.
So what else?
Having become a conservative liberal as I age, I see the greatest challenge to the world as the Woke movement. Because this is a well entrenched movement based on emotion, it defies objective argument. Indeed part of its campaign is the cancellation of opponents.
I believe it was born in USA in the 1950’s with the Civil Rights movement legitimising radical opposition to goverment policies. It has always been fashionable for students to be left wing and radical. Che Guevarra spawned generations of revolutionaries and became the ubiquitous countercultural symbol of rebellion and global insignia in popular culture.
Aluta continua!
American imperialism in Korea, Vietnam, the Middle East, Afghanistan has alienated many people , who regard America and capitalism as the Great Satan.
Many attacks on western institutions such as democracy, freedom of speech, the rule of law and criticisms and protests have been levelled through universities, which have become the home not only of intelligensia, but the idle rich too. They also have become fertile grounds for agents provocateurs who know the untrammeled reverence the western world has for Freedom.
Social media has become the bludgeon of the wokesters, but seems largely disdained by conservatives.
The people of the US, which is a supposed torchbearer of democracy and the free world, have become deeply divided to the extent that further insurrection is quite feasible.
Maybe the world woke war will be fought there? I am repulsed by the idea that Trump may be the leader of anti-Wokesters, but that seems somehow to be how the narrative is shaping up.
For most of the 20th century left-of-center politics was defined by class struggle between the rich and the poor. Now the left has been completely subsumed by identity politics, the struggles for historically disadvantaged demographic groups for equality. Unfortunately the class struggle (which largely drove the oppression of women and minorities) has been all but forgotten by mainstream liberal politicians and political parties.
In Australia, the battle of Woke will be the the referendum for a Voice.
Africa will definitely be Woke as they see new sources of money in reparations for slavery and colonial conquests. Notwithstanding the endemic corruption, nepotism, discrimination, xenophobia, female subjugation and genital mutilation, which are ignored and if mentioned attract immediate cancellation of the mentioner . (Oh dear…maybe I’ll be cancelled too!)
Cultural values have changed and now appear to be totally under the influence of prevailing media.
I think 2023 will see clarification of the division between Woke and the Tories
The huge gaps in wealth between the very rich and the rest is eroding capitalism’s credibility.
The antics and influence of corporate billionaires appear to proceed unchecked and we should pray that they remain philanthropic and benevolent.
In Europe, right wing factions will grow in direct proportion to the waves of Third World refugees flooding over their borders.
If you do not like something speak out, do not avoid the issue
de l’audace, encore de l’audace, et toujours de l’audace is what is needed.
Foreboding lurks at the back of my mind, almost continuously. It’s not so much the plague, but how people are behaving. Society is being strained at its seams and frayed edges begin to appear.
As you may recall, my world context retains strong ties to Southern Africa and I am a child raised during the Cold War, when the spectre of the time was Communism driven by totalitarians. Then, as now, simple maxims were used to sway the masses. Freedom and equality for all!
Isn’t it ironic that these are the underpinnings of the woke movement, demanding representation and retribution for any cadre with some identifiable characteristic, practice or habit.
The process of promotion of the interests of minority groups has attacked current institutions, individuals and laws on the premise that their existence has been achieved to the disadvantage of minorities who were discriminated against in history.
At the same time, the prevalence of conspiracies and their adherents is challenging democracies’ability to govern and is widely being used as a political tool to fuel fire in followers. The old name for conspiracies was propaganda. Its purpose was to galvanise popular belief, without challenge.
An alarming feature of recent campaigns of identity movements like #metoo and Black Lives Matter is that mere allegations are accepted as facts. Now that’s okay when allegations are admitted, but when they are disputed, there has always been a process to ascertain the most accurate version of the truth.
Corroboration is essential. But nowadays, every accused person is deemed a liar unless they admit their guilt.
Capitalism has created a huge disparity in earnings with the super rich becoming the aristocracy of old.
Marketing and Kardocumentatries, scripted reality shows and social media exaggerate and glorify lifestyles impossible for all but the rich. Tension, envy and outrage brew amongst those who can never indulge in champagne cruises, drive Porsches, wear silk shirts and eat caviar.
Attributions for the London rioters’ behaviour in 2011 included social factors such as racial tension, class tension, economic decline, and the unemployment that decline had brought. Well that is also an accurate picture of what happened in South Africa and eSwatini. Put a lid on a boiling pot and eruptions are certain!
I am trying to say that world wide we are at a stage that reasonable judgment has been suspended and gut feeling is carrying the day. This means that democracy is dead, it cannot be sustained in the face of ever-increasing individual demands for unique treatment. Capitalism in its present form has also failed. The poor are increasing and want more.
The task is to find new inviolate principles by which all agree they can be governed.
Tragically, all we need to do is look at organised religion to see that so many prophets arise to lead that there is continuous alienation and conflict.
I hoped that the plague would give rise to strong, credible leadership but fear there are too many critics, not enough followers.
So, sadly it seems that fragmentation will continue until another global catastrophe arises to force us together, maybe a world war – any bets on how soon and who will oppose the Chicomms?
My mother was very “proper” and her sternest reprimand was “that is not done (in good society)!” My father was big on chivalry and respect.
Their ethos was maintaining the status quo. They would have been aghast by today’s cancel culture, the bastard child of political correctness.
Social media has weaponised the assault against anyone right of centre. Freedom of speech is drowned by the floods of woke activists; intolerant of differing opinions, they publicly shame and punish dissenters.
Sadly politicians have all submitted to the tyranny that political correctness now promotes.
When a faceless mob starts dictating what can be said and what cannot be said, then democracy is at death’s door.
Thus the woke mob has enabled conviction upon mere allegation, the disregard of due process and the immediate destruction of reputations without allowing defence. Debates are reduced to memes and emojis, dissent is dissed.
The fear of being pillored makes us inhibited and afraid to address even the most banal issues directly. We have taken a knee and will be obliged to do so until we get brave enough to challenge the mob.
We have ourselves to blame. Our society has forgotten that freedom must be cherished and enjoyed responsibly. We have forgotten that freedom extends to everyone and we have become prisoners of populism.
The mob has grown and has immense power and influence. So much so that governments tailor their policies and actions to conform.
And in the naked light, I saw Ten thousand people, maybe more People talking without speaking People hearing without listening People writing songs that voices never share And no one dared Disturb the sound of silence
“Fools”, said I, “You do not know Silence like a cancer grows Hear my words that I might teach you Take my arms that I might reach you” But my words, like silent raindrops fell And echoed In the wells of silence
And the people bowed and prayed To the neon god they made And the sign flashed out its warning In the words that it was forming And the sign said, “The words of the prophets are written on the subway walls And tenement halls” And whispered in the sound of silence
Story suggested by Bob a.k.a. Tinker Connolly Monday 15 March
The continent of Atlantis was an island Which lay before the great flood In the area we now call the Atlantic Ocean So great an area of land, that from her western shores Those beautiful sailors journeyed To the South and the North Americas with ease In their ships with painted sails…
Hail Atlantis!Way down below the ocean Where I wanna be, she may be…
or
Under the sea Under the sea Darling it’s better Down where it’s wetter Take it from me
It seems crazy to be talking about settling Mars when there is so much space under the sea.
In modern times, it was probably the intrepid underwater pioneer Cousteau and his Conshelf research habitat built under water in the 70’s that sparked interest in the possibility of living underwater.
Under sea habitation could alleviate over-population problems, or guard against the possibility of natural or man-made disasters that render land-based human life impossible.
Skylab has clearly demonstrated that it is possibleto survive for long periods out of the atmosphere. The difference with underwater is increased pressure as opposed to no pressure.
The pressures at any deeper than 1,000ft (300m), would require very thick walls and excessive periods of decompression for those returning to the surface, but there is plenty of sea bed above that level.
Energy can be generated harnessing wave action or placing solar panels on the surface.
The air composition needed to sustain the aquanauts depends upon the depth of the habitat. Current habitats use compressors to constantly push fresh air from the surface down tubes to the habitat. Growing plants using natural or artificial light could be used to generate a fresh supply of oxygen, or other methods could be developed to produce oxygen.
There are hotels which have underwater modules.
Water can be created using condensation or desalinisation. Depending upon the size of the colony, human waste could be treated and released into the environment.
Homes with undersea modules have been developed
A number of ideas and proposals are under consideration and undersea mining and marine fish farms are significantly large industries.
The sea is being recognised as an opportunity for expansion. Let us hope we can clean up pollution before we start living there. And keep it clean. And minimise our impact on a different eco-system….
Plane seats on the wing is a notion which looks like it may be fun and cool. Closer examination of the idea reveals a number of probably fatal flaws.
Flying on a wing and a prayer was a description of the desperate condition of shot up aircraft returning home after raids on enemy territory, only just getting home…. or not.
Then there are wing walkers who perform crazy stunts for entertainment purposes – not very many people have that sort of confidence. My tummy wobbles just thinking about it.
At the speeds that aircraft move, it would not be easy reading a book or drinking coffee on the wing; conversation and safety announcements would be a tad awkward too. You would have to rug up too -those lightweight airline dishcloth blankets won’t keep the icicles away!
So plane seats on wings probably won’t go very far as a paying proposition.
However, for those keen on the idea, if they are willing to accept a compromise, they could sit inside the wing quite comfortably and a lot more safely. KLM Royal Dutch Airlines has just partnered with a university to develop the “Flying-V,” a radical new airplane design that puts passenger seats inside the plane’s wings — and it could decrease the amount of fuel needed for flights by a substantial 20 percent.
Modern designs of aircraft are moving away from a central fuselage and towards an all wing aircraft.
Of course, we are really talking about living on the edge. The more confident, some may say foolhardy may try the extreme. Wingsuit flying provides experiences as close to bird-like soaring as human beings are likely to experience, given the configuration of our bodies.
It is possible for a wingsuit flier to approach speeds of 150 mph!
This extreme form of flying makes wing walking look like paddling in a puddle and it really looks like the stuff of dreams.
Once or twice in my life I have dreamed I was flying, just soaring through the skies …. what a feeling it was!
I could do it if I wanted to, but these days I prefer to stay away from the edge.
To see what it looks like, check out this video link to wingsuit flying, it will take your breath away!
sillysocksonfriday 